Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Marqu - ette Down

Get it?  Marqu - ette Down like Mark It Down.  Yeah, I know.  I stretching . . . . 
 
Tweets of the Day - John Henson Edition
Love that Henson is supporting the women's basketball and gymnastic team.  #TarHeelNation
John Henson

YESSIIR WOMEN'S TEAM GOING TO THE SWEET 16!! LETS GET IT!!
John Henson

Congrats @ and @ for being ACC champs. ...yet no love in the DTH ! @ wassup with that!!
John Henson

Twitter national champs..! Lol ! RT @ proof that UNC basketball owns Twitter: Go HEELS. GoAMERICA.
How the Big East Proves 
That the BCS Is Bull Shit

The thing about the NCAA Tournament is that it so sharply contrasts the BCS system.  Heading into the Tournament, the Big East was the undisputed best basketball conference in the country.  Following the first weekend of the Big Dance, only two of eleven remain standing.  Have I mentioned how much I love Charles Barkley's commentary on the NCAA Tournament?  Well, I'm going to let Chuck take it away to help my point about the "Itty Bitty Least."

Because these games are played, the Big East has been exposed as overrated.  Charles Barkley said it at the beginning of the tournament and people laughed.  He was mocked.  Well, he was right.

The perception of the Big East was founded in pre-Conference play.  I believe this perception creates a network effect that augments reality.  The media sees a conference as dominate because of the early season play or the perceived historical strength of a conference and talks about its greatness, failing to account for the growth of teams from other conferences throughout the season.  As more people latch onto this idea, the value of that conference continues to grow until it becomes fact, when it is nothing more than an idea.  The only way for the idea to become fact is to settle it on a field of play.  There is a reason these games are played and the outcomes not determined by statisticians and talking heads.  That is what the NCAA Tournament does, it tests the idea.  It does not eliminate perspective candidates until only two remain and then allow those two to play it out.  Unfortunately, the BCS does do this and, worst yet, people defend it.

Consider for a moment that a system similar to the BCS was employed for basketball.  There are five (5) BCS Bowl games: (1) BCS National Championship Game, (2) Rose Bowl, (3) Sugar Bowl, (4) Orange Bowl, and (5) Fiesta Bowl.  Instead of an elimination tournament, there would be one game to determine the National Champion and then four other trophy games.  The perceived best two teams would play for the National Championship.

I am going to keep it simple and ignore the automatic qualifier issues and only include the top ten basketball teams according to the ranks established by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.  Let me explain.  The Selection Committee ranks the number one seeds.  As such, each has an opposing number two seed that would be ranked in a snake like fashion so that the number one overall seed would be paired with the fourth two seed (or 8 seed overall) and first three seed (ninth overall).  Based on a best vs. next best scenario, the outcome would look like this.

 
Just seeing it laid out like this, it is ridiculous.  Could you imagine the basketball National Champion be determined in this fashion?  The "strongest" basketball conference is not even represented in the championship game, but should it be?  The Big East represents 30% of the top ten, yet none of those teams will be playing this weekend.  Guess the Big Least wasn't that strong after all.  The idea that the Big East was the strongest basketball conference was tested and it failed, miserably.  

This is my one of my biggest issues with the BCS.  (You can read about the other here.)  Before there has even been a Spring Game played on any campus, I can guarantee you that an SEC team will play for the National Championship.  The idea is that the SEC is the best football conference in the country and to suggest otherwise will call your judgment into question (just like Chuck).  What is there to substantiate that "fact?"  If you suggest that because the last five national champions came out of the SEC as proof, then you are making an illogical argument.  The system is flawed so the outcome of the system cannot be used to substantiate its effect.

If you look at SEC schedules, the out of conference scheduling is pathetic at best.  The only games that are even remotely challenging are natural rivalries, e.g. FSU vs UF.  Otherwise, they get to rest on their laurels because "the SEC schedule is tough enough."  Bullshit.  How do you really know how strong that schedule is if they don't collectively play anyone.  Also, if they are so dominant, why did the SEC only finish with a .500 Bowl record last season.  Sure, they had the most teams with ten, but that just means more opportunities to demonstrate their dominance.  The ACC had nine teams in Bowl games and finished with one less win than the SEC.  Does that make the ACC the second best football conference?

Is SEC football like Big East basketball?  I don't know, but I do know that the notion that the SEC is the best football conference in the country is an idea.  And that idea does not get tested.  We need a playoff.  Not statisticans, talking heads, and coaches creating and relying on perception to decide who deserves the right to play for a National Championship.  College is the only level of football where the champion is determined by one game outside the regular season.  The NFL has a playoff.  High schools have playoffs.  The BCS is an EPIC FAILURE!  Just because it exists, doesn't mean it should.


Matt Hinton recently wrote a great article discussing a college playoff.  The article is linked and worth the read.  While I don't agree with all of his ideas for the playoff (especially about Notre Dame), it is the soundest I've seen.  Below is the brackets for his proposal as well as the proposed 2010 outcome. 

The 2010 bracket, using the final BCS standings of the regular season, would have shaken out like so:
Automatic Bids:
• Auburn (SEC Champion)
Oregon (Pac-10 Champion)
TCU (At-large; ranked in Top 4)
Stanford (At-large; ranked in Top 4)
Wisconsin (Big Ten Champion)
• Oklahoma (Big 12 Champion)
Virginia Tech (ACC Champion)
Connecticut (Big East Champion)
At-Large Bids: Ohio State, Arkansas.
First-Round Byes:
• Auburn (No. 1 Overall)
• Oregon (No. 2 Overall)
• TCU (Ranked in Top 4)
• Stanford (Ranked in Top 4)
• Wisconsin (Big Six Champion)
• Oklahoma (Big Six Champion)
NOTE: Virginia Tech and UConn would not earn first-round byes as Big Six champions, because a) They were replaced by TCU and Stanford, at-large teams ranked in the top four in the BCS standings; and b) Both finished ranked outside of the top 12, forfeiting their bye, anyway.
Home Games:
• First Round: Virginia Tech (ranked Big 6 champion), Ohio State (highest-ranked remaining at-large).
• Second Round: Auburn (No. 1), Oregon (No. 2), Wisconsin (Big Six champion), Oklahoma (Big Six champion).
• UConn would not receive a home game, even in the first round, because it finished unranked in the final BCS standings.
Or, in convenient bracket form (seeds based on final BCS standings, and assuming for the sake of convenience that the higher-seeded team wins each game):

Obviously, Hinton is automatically advancing the highest rated team for illustration purposes, but who is to say that Auburn beats Stanford or Oregon beats TCU?  Well,  we will never know . . . . 

The Only Known Avian Predator of the 
Golden Eagle is the Black Falcon

The best place to start with a team like Marquette is its head coach, Buzz Williams.  I really like Buzz and wish he was in the ACC.  Check him out:

Much like the team itself, Buzz Williams worked from the bottom up to get to Marquette. The Golden Eagles have several guys that made it to D-I basketball by working their way up through the JUCO levels. This team takes its toughness and perseverance from their coach and that makes them a dangerous team who can beat anyone in the country once.  To put it simply, Marquette is an EFFORT TEAM (all caps).

"Can't be purdy.  This ain't a beauty contest."

Defensively, Marquette is probably going to vary their looks between man and a match up zone.  You can expect a high energy defensive effort that puts pressure on the ball.  Over the last five games, Marquette is averaging 7.2 steals a game and easy transition baskets is where they make a living.  We have been playing much better against the zone and have faced more athletic ball pressure, so we should be able to impose our will over Marquette if we stay focused.  The tallest Golden Eagle that gets significant minutes is 6'7" so they will double the post.  This should get some open looks for Barnes and McDonald for jumpers as well as open up opportunities for Henson and Zeller to dump off to cutters for high percentage lay ups.  As they won't be able to out athlete us, our ability to score and run should concern Marquette fans.  You heard Buzz.  They aren't any good taking the ball out of the basket.

Offensively, Marquette is going to need to hit 3s.  Lately, they have been shooting very well beyond the arc, hitting more than 40% in four of the last five games.  Not coincidentally, they won those four games and lost the fifth.  To be competitive, Marquette will need to at least connect on five or more threes (while shooting +40%) to keep pace with our scoring and to open up the driving lanes for their slashers.  This is a tough match up for Marquette because they would prefer to push the pace, not like Washington, but they do want to play up tempo.  Unfortunately, they know they can't run with us, so you can expect them to pick their spots to run.  The other tough prospect for them is the offensive glass.  Like most effort teams, they like to crash the boards for second opportunities with their guards.  Do they stay with this strategy and expose themselves to our fast break run-outs?  Let's just say, I am glad I am not Buzz.  

Players to Watch:
Darius Johnson Odom
Johnson Odom is a 6'2" guard from Raleigh, North Carolina that can fill up the every column of the stat sheet.  He is the leader of Marquette.  As he goes, they go.  He must play well if the Golden Eagles are going to make a run at the Elite Eight.




 Jimmy Butler
Butler is a 6'7" combo that impacts every game.  He is a player that helps his team win, even if it doesn't show up with gaudy numbers in the box score.








Jae Crowder
Crowder is in his first year at Marquette after two years playing JUCO ball.  While he is only 6'6", he plays much bigger and is always around the ball off the glass.  He can score and rebound.  While he doesn't start, he plays starter's minutes and will be on the court making plays at the end of the game.

  
The best way to describe Marquette is that they are Virginia Tech with more heart and better coaching.  Buzz Williams is taking a page out of Dean Smith's play book and emphasizing the underdog role with his team.  As such, you can expect these guys to fight and fight hard for every 50/50 ball and we will need to win that battle to get the W.  If they want it more than we do, it will show up there and then on the score board.  This is a dangerous team; however, if we give them the attention they deserve and the effort that is required, we will be moving on to the Elite Eight.

Carolina 78-71 over Marquette.

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