Game Day Preview: Virginia

Game Day Preview:

Virginia Caviler Wahoos

Strength on Strength.  In one of the oldest football rivalries in the country, the way the Tar Heels and Cavilers match up is strength on strength on both sides of the ball.  

UVA RB and North Carolina native Kevin Parks

Virginia is a run first offense.  The Wahoos are 33rd in the country in rushing, averaging 201 yards on the ground per game for 7 touch downs.  The running game is a three headed monster with junior Perry Jones, red shirt freshman Kevin Parks and true freshman Clifton Richardson.  While Perry Jones gets the start, Kevin Parker is the running back that is most productive and finds the endzone the most with five touch downs.  Parker is a diminutive running back, similar to Gio Bernard but not as fast, that has emerged as the go-to guy, running for 151 yards on 27 carries for 5.6 average.  Parker is a North Carolinian, so this will be something of a homecoming for the Salisbury native.  However, his status for Saturday is in doubt after suffering an ankle injury early in the second half of last week's game against Indiana.  Caviler coach Mike London said that he expects Parks to play and has him listed as probable, but he likely will not be close to a 100%.

Regardless of Parks availability and health, you can expect to see plenty of Jones, who is averaging 3.9 yards on 34 carries.  If Parks is unavailable or limited, Clifton Richardson will see more snaps than he has in the previous two games.  Richardson is a bigger back and stronger back than both Jones and Parks.  On 11 carries, Richardson has run for 98 yards for an average of 8.9 per carry.  However, despite Richardson's potential, he is a significant liability in protection (like most true freshmen), so this will be a situation worth monitoring.  If Parks is healthy, Richardson is not likely to be in on many passing plays.  If Parks is limited and Richardson sees extended action, look for UNC defensive coordinator Art Kaufman to test Richardson's pass protection recognition early and often. 

UNC has the third best rush defense in the country and is the strength of the defense.  The weather looks like it may be a little wet on Saturday, so this may be a battle for the line of scrimmage.  The Virginia offensive line is an experienced group that may boast a couple of future NFLers.  So far this season, that unit has been effective in creating running lanes as the Cavs average 4.6 yards per carry.  However, it is a unit that has not really been tested as they have played  Indiana, who gave up 210 yards on the ground to Ball State, and an FCS team in William and Mary.  UNC will represent a significant increase in competition.

For Virginia to be successful offensively, QB Micheal Rocco is going to need to test the secondary.  While Rocco is an accurate passer, he does not have a particularly strong arm.  He throws short and intermediate routes well.  Rocco completes 62.1% of his passes.  Unfortunately, it is for only 6.29 yards per attempt. Allowing UNC to sit on routes without stretching the field is not going to test the secondary.  From what I have seen in two games, either UNC's underneath coverage with linebackers is out of sync in filling their zones or the secondary is cheating too hard on the run and gets caught leaning in.   Regardless of the potential of the playmakers on the outside, if Rocco is unable to deliver the deep ball, they will be neutralized and those bad defensive tendencies will not be exploited.  Finally, watch for RB Jones as he is a quality pass catcher out of the backfield. 

"To big to be playing on a Minnifield" ~ D. Jones

Defensively, Virginia has a quality secondary.  Chase Minnifield is a veteran corner that will probably be covering Dwight Jones.  Minnifield was rated as the 16th top player in the ACC by ESPN blogger Heather Dinich (not sure that is really much of an endorsement).  Last time they played, Jones had a coming out party with 7 catches for 198 yards and 2 TDs.  There is no love lost between the two as Jones posted on Facebook, "To big to be playing on a Minnifield."  I have to admit.  That made me laugh!

Opposite of Minnifield is true freshman Demetrious Nicholson.  If not for the NCAA investigation, Nicholson would probably be a Tar Heel.  He has earned a starting spot and is playing well with one INT already on the year.

Virginia will represent a more orthodox challenge for the UNC offensive line.  Unlike Rutgers who stunted and brought pressure from all over the field, Virginia will bring a more conventional attack.  This will be a good measuring stick for the progress of the offensive line.  I expect that they should be able to control the line for scrimmage and get a nice push for Bernard, Houston and hopefully AJ Blue.

If we can clean up the turnovers and penalties, UNC should be able to cruise to the double digit that Vegas has predicted.  However, this is still one of the oldest rivalries in college football and UNC hasn't won an ACC season opener in 10 years.  Hopefully, that is a streak that will come to an end on Saturday.   

5 Things I Will Be Watching

Eric Ebron's first career catch

1. MBPO -Missed Big Play Opportunities.  We need to turn the tide on the turnover margin.  If an opportunity is presented for an INT or forced fumble recovery, we need to capitalize.  I never thought we would be two games into the season without a turnover.
2. Penalties - We have been far too penalized and need to clean that up.
3. Ryan Houston - In the first two games, Houston appeared to be a little gun shy.  I remember Houston being a back that would put his head down to initiate contact and grind out a final two or three yards at the end of the run.  Remember the hit on Tre Boston in the Spring Game (http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/allaccess/?media=241207 - at the 50 second mark).  So far this season since his return from shoulder surgery, Houston is doing a lot more dancing and not lowering the boom on the linebackers and safeties trying to make the tackle.  I am a little concerned.
4. Tight Ends - The tight ends have not really been targeted in the first couple of games.  They are a huge weapon in Shoop's offense because, if you have to respect them in passing routes, you can get single coverage on the outside and it creates a mismatch with linebackers in coverage.  I hope to see them, especially Eric Ebron, get a little more involved in the passing game.  
5. Bryn Renner - I expect bad throws and interceptions from a new quarterback, but I also expect progress.  As the season goes on, I want to see him get rid of it quicker if nothing is there to avoid unnecessary hits.  Renner is better than advertised and it is going to be an exciting year with him under center.  I would prefer he not take any more hits than necessary, especially against a team like Rutgers that was diving at his knees.

Colin Cowherd Hearts UVA Football