Game Day Preview - Louisville

Tweets of the Day

InsideCarolina InsideCarolina 

Britt Offered: North Carolina extended a scholarship offer to junior point guard Nate Britt on Wednesday. bit.ly/pgGZJd

Tyler_Naron21 Tyler Naron 

And Nate Britt is coming to LNWR, with Warren, any other big time recruits wanna come down? Mitch?

Game Day Preview - 

Louisville

Louisville Head Coach Charlie Strong

Is there a better surname for a defensive coach than Strong?  I think not.  Head coach Charlie Strong and Louisville will come into Chapel Hill this weekend with the 20th ranked scoring defense allowing only 16.8 points per game,  the 14th ranked rushing defense allowing only eighty-five yards per game, ranked 20th nationally for sacks per game at 2.75, 1st in the nation in tackles for loss per game with nine, and 24th nationally in total defense.  Needless to say, Charlie Strong has the Cardinals playing some defense.  Or does he?

In football, the saying goes, "stats are for losers."  I like numbers, so I look at them.  Looking at the numbers and national rankings of Louisville's defense, it is impressive, especially the rushing defense . . . until you look at their opponents - Murray State, Florida International, Kentucky and Marshall.  I will ignore Murray State since they are an FCS team.  A look at the points per game average for the remaining three makes the defensive numbers that Louisville has posted very suspect: Florida International - 22.1; Kentucky - 15; and Marshal - 11.2.  Those are some pretty anemic offenses.  In contrast, UNC averages 31.4 points per game.

UL's QB Teddy Bridewater

Additional anemic numbers.  Kentucky is 96th nationally with 116.2 yards per game on the ground or  ranked 103rd with 3.28 yards per carry.  Florida International is more proficient, but still not in the top half nationally at 63rd with 146 rushing yards per game or 4.03 yards per carry (still 63rd in the nation).  Worst is Marshall.  The Herd are ranked 110th with 94 yards per game or 112th national in yards per carry with 2.88 per attempt.  Unlike the rest of Louisville's schedule to date, North Carolina averages 5.19 yards per carry for 22nd best in the country.

The scary part, Louisville's offense numbers.  They have a true freshman under center in Teddy Birdgewater.  While he was a highly touted prospect coming into Louisville, the Cardinals are replacing several offensive starters, so you can expect some inefficiency and inconsistency.   However, Louisville is 105th (out of 120) in the country in offensive scoring with 18.8 points per game.  Based on the schdule so far, I think it is fair to say that they haven't faced a defense as talented as the one they will see on Saturday either. 

Bottom line, this is a game that UNC should win comfortably as long as we come in prepared and play better than we did against Rutgers.  Louisville is a program that is rebuilding, but they have playmakers.  Therefore, they can beat you.  I think we come in ready to play and our defense takes out some frustration after two weeks of GT and ECU on an undermanned Louisville offensive line.

What I Will Be Watching

Tre Boston forcing a strip turnover against ECU

1 - The Secondary.  Does Tre Boston move back to safety with the return of Jabari Price?  Boston added the weight in the off season and committed himself to the transition in the film room and summer camp.  I would like to see that hard work pay off on the field in the position he prepared himself to play.  With the remainder of the teams on our schedule being efficient, pass-heavy offenses, we need to get the secondary playing better football.  I think putting the expected pieces back into place will go a long way toward doing that.

2 - The Defensive Line.  Louisville should be a stat day, but it will only be a stat day for the front seven if they come in ready to play.  Will we be looking ahead to Miami or will we be focused on the task at hand?

3 - The Death Rattle.  Will we come out attacking and put Louisville away quickly or will we allow them to hang around and make it interesting in the second half?  We have learned how to win.  Now, we need to learn how to kill.  Forgive the hyperbole, but you know what I am saying.

The State of the Hill

YTSOTD

YouTube Song of the Day

Theophilus London - I Stand Alone

You might recognize it from HBO's How to Make It America.

Tweet of the Day

HeardThisBlog Ben W./Derrick N.

Interesting how quickly fans will go from love to hate (See: UK w/ @T_warren32). It's a shame. These players are just kids.

 

After TJ Warren announced that he would not be attending UK's midnight madness and would in Chapel Hill, Warren was bombarded with some derogatory and hateful tweets from Wildcat fans.  One in particular told him to go fuck himself.   I was going to post it, but it was deleted.  Warren has a wonderful opportunity at numerous great schools.  He is in an win-win situation no matter what school he picks.  Recognize that every school offers a great opportunity.  He shouldn't have the selection process tainted by hateful fans. After all, these players are just kids.

EDIT TO ADD:  The UK hate wasn't limited to TJ Warren.  According to the Lost Lettermen's post Kentucky Fans Take Aim at Recruits Mitch McGary, TJ Warren:

Since John Calipari’s arrival in Lexington, Kentucky has been involved in the recruiting of nearly every top prospect in the nation. So, we are used to players reflexively adding the Wildcats to their lists of possible destinations.

But this week, Kentucky saw two top recruits distance themselves from the school. Forward-center Mitch McGary and forward T.J. Warren – ranked No. 3 and No. 23 in the nation, respectively, on Rivals.com – apparently are looking elsewhere.

The Louisville Courier-Journal reported Monday that Warren has narrowed his list to four schools (North Carolina, North Carolina State, Florida and Georgetown), while McGary is reportedly down to Duke, North Carolina and Michigan.

Both Warren and McGary will play for New Hampshire’s Brewster Academy this season and both hate come under fire from the Big Blue Nation for deciding not to take their talents to Lexington.

Tweeted one person to McGary: “Unfollowing a big goofy looking d***sucker. We didnt want your wigger a** at Midnight Madness anyway, we want REAL prospects.”

Tweeted another to Warren: “heard u just took UK off your list of schools BIG MISTAKE…go f*** your self”

That’s pleasant.

In a word, DESPICABLE!

GoodmanCBS Jeff Goodman

Kentucky backed off T.J. Warren; Not other way around, per sources. Multiple coaches are concerned with his recent attitude/body language.

Yeah.  I call bullshit.  Calipari is a slimy douchebag and this just proves it.  I will say this.  Calipari is a great representative of Wildcat Nation based on the response that TJ Warren got on twitter.  Goodman should know better than to put this bullshit out there.  I know I would love for Warren to be a Tar Heel and Kentucky is full of shit if they are claiming they aren't interested. 

The State of the Hill

Football Edition

The Chancellor

It is impossible to discuss the state of the football program without mentioning Holden Thorp, which is ridiculous.  The name Thorp will live in infamy in Chapel Hill.  In two years time, you can expect an announcement that Thorp misses the classroom and will return to his tenured position in the chemistry department.  Two years.  Big money has a long memory and a change a the top will happen once the waters smooth out. 

The Athletic Director

Lawrence "Bubba" Cunningham

The news about the direction of the athletic director position is very positive.  There are several candidates under consideration; however, Lawrence "Bubba" Cunningham is emerging as the favorite.  Cunningham is a Notre Dame graduate and spent 15 years in the Irish athletic department before becoming Ball State's AD.  Cunningham is currently the AD at Tulsa.  Click here for his Tulsa bio.

Cunningham has proven that he is a good fundraiser for capital investments in athletic facilities (lead a $50 million expansion of the Notre Dame football stadium, expanded and improved facilities at Ball State including a $12 million renovation of the football stadium, improvements at Tulsa's football stadium), a strong marketer of his programs (assigned a department to each individual sport within the athletic department and exponentially increased, by as much as 400%, corporate sponsorship at Tulsa and Ball State), and ability to energize the university community and fanbase (Tulsa attracted 15,000 fans to their last bowl game in Tennessee).

Most importantly, Bubba has a national network of contacts that include Brady Hoke, Gus Malzhan, and Urban Meyer.  Bubba's successful history of football hires include Brady Hoke at Ball State and Todd Graham as well as Gus Malzhan at Tulsa.  Additionally, Meyer and Cunningham were at ND together.  

Another name that has popped up is Brad Bates.  Bates is currently the AD at Miami (OH).  Bates does not have a good track record of football hires, marketing or fundraising, but got attention for his compliance plan.  In all seriousness, if Bates is named UNC's AD I will discontinue this blog because it will signal a negative direction for the athletics at UNC.  Put simply, Bubba Cunningham represents a step forward.  Bates represents a step back.  Lets just say, I expect to continue blogging. 

The Head Coach

The direction of the football program will be determined by the next football coach hire.  Forget about an exhaustive list, but these are the guys I would like to see leading the program and we have a chance at landing if Bubba Cunningham is our next AD.

Everett Withers

1 - Everett Withers.  This team is 4-1 with the only loss coming on the road by a touchdown against the number one offense in the country.  This team is focused and workman-like.  I like the tone and accountability that Withers has established.  Against GT, OLB Zach Brown, the team's leading tackler, was relegated to special teams duty only (he did not play on defense) for missing two classes during the week.  Additionally, after a sloppy start, the team has virtually eliminated penalties.  That means this team is disciplined and focused.  When you combine discipline and focus with talent, you get Ws.  Withers understands the culture at UNC, where it is not only about winning but winning with class and integrity.  Coach Davis understood that as well.  However, a new coach may not.  I really, really like Withers both on the field on Saturday and off the field Sunday through Friday.  Another positive is that retaining Withers means staff and scheme stability.  I hope Withers earns this job.

2 - Urban Meyer.  This is a long shot, but it is not an impossibility.  There are several things that need to be considered when looking at Urban Meyer's prospects in Chapel Hill:

• Bubba Cunningham worked with Urban Meyer at Notre Dame

• UNC has a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, so Meyer will not have to restock and rebuild the program.  Further, North Carolina and its surrounding areas are fertile recruiting ground that Meyer knows well. 

Urban Meyer

• UNC has reasonable expectations.  Unlike in the SEC and UF, we are not a win at any cost culture.  Meyer got burned out in Gainsville because of the culture and expectations.  UNC offers him an opportunity to coach at a high level and be competitive with ample resources without selling his soul to the devil.  It is an attractive job where he can succeed in the ACC without the ancillary issues that caused him to leave Florida.  

• UNC provides Meyer with an opportunity to create a legacy by building a program into a national power.  There aren't too many attractive places that have the kind of resources that UNC has where you can forge a lasting legacy by building a sustained national power.  This was a factor in attracting Coach Davis (who has laid a solid foundation) and could very well be a factor in attracting Meyer. 

Remember, I didn't say it was likely, but it is not an impossibility.  Everyone thinks that Meyer is heading to Ohio State, but why leave UF for Ohio State?  Same pressures and expectations.  No one thought that Coach Davis would come to Chapel Hill, but he did.  Urban Meyer could too.  

Gus Malzahn

3 - Gus Malzahn.  Cunningham was the AD when Malzahn left Arkansas for Tulsa so there is an existing professional relationship between the two.  Malzahn is a offensive guru.  Just check the numbers by clicking the link - The Malzahn Effect.  SICK!  The only questions I have with Malzahn would be about the staff he could attract to work under him.  Realistically, Malzahn would run the offense.  It would not be unreasonable to see Malzahn hire a young guy to mentor as the offensive coordinator like Coach Mo.  On the defensive side of the ball, who would be the d-coordinator?  Malzahn could probably bring Tommy Thigpen back home to UNC from Auburn (which would be well received), but we would need an experienced defensive coordinator.  Regardless, Malzahn, Mo and Thig are prolific recruiters.  Malzahn does not have any experience as a head coach of a Division I college program, but he is one of the hottest names in coaching and you can expect that he will be a head coach sooner rather than later.   

The Team

This team is good but has a chance to be BCS good.

We are 8th nationally in yards per play offensively and average 31.4 points per game.  Offensively, we are much better than most would have expected in the preseason.  If you read this blog, you know how good Renner, Gio, the o-line, and Dwight Jones are.  Coach Shoop has this offense moving.  While there is room for improvement, this is a dynamic offense that deploys creative personnel groupings and attacks with multiple options.  For example, last Saturday against ECU, AJ Blue lined up in four different positions - quarterback, running back, full back, and wide receiver.  Love it!  That will keep d-coordinators up at nights and eat up practice time in preparation for possible personnel groups they may or may not see. 

Dwight Jones' one-handed fade route catch.   Re-Dick-u-lous!

Defensively, we have some work to do in the secondary.  Teams are averaging 7.35 yards per pass attempt and completing 62.5% of passes for 1,294 yards and 7 TDs.  The run defense is getting it done, but the secondary needs to sure things up for us to be able to beat a team like Clemson in Death Valley, which I believe we can.  Getting Jabari Price back from injury should help.  Hopefully, this will allow Tre Boston to move back to safety with Price and Charlie Brown starting at CB with Tim Scott in nickle.  However, I am not too optimistic that Boston will move back immediately based on Withers press conference comments.  Luckily, we have a couple of weeks to work Price back in and straighten out the secondary with Louisville and Miami's Jacory Harris coming to Kenan.

The national media is sleeping on us.  One game at a time, we will make them take note.

The State of the Hill

The state of the Hill is good.  If Cunningham is brought on as the next AD, we will be able to move forward with confidence.  We have a good team that can get better, but then it was never the team that I questioned.

Game Day Preview - East Carolina

Game Day Preview - 

East Carolina

Take any analysis and throw it out the window.  Things like:

• The 3-Step Drop.  ECU uses a quick passing game to get the ball into space with the hopes that their receivers can break a tackle for a big play.  This will put stress on our secondary.  While we get Jabari Price back, this year our biggest weakness defensively has been the secondary.  This quick passing game is an extension of their running game and we must be prepared to make one-on-one tackles in space.  ECU has one of the youngest offensive coordinators, Lincoln Riley, in the country and he studied under Mike Leach at Texas Tech.  He is going to spread it out and create space with 3, 4 and maybe even 5 wide receiver sets. 

Eric Highsmith against ECU last year at Kenan.

• Red Zone Efficiency.  UNC has put 6 on the board in 12 of 14 visits to the red zone.  On the other two visits, there was a fumbled snap against UVA and a game ending Victory-formation against Rutgers.  Needless to say, we are efficient in the best possible sense.  However, ECU eighteenth in the country in red zone defense, allowing only 9 TDs on 16 red zone possessions by the opposition.  This is the same team that held VT to 17 at home. 

Yup.  Toss out the analysis.  This is an intrastate game rivalry with a school that feels it has a stronger football tradition and more passionate fan base than UNC.  It is their Super Bowl.  Ask NC State.  The Pirates have something to prove.  It is a night game.  A night game at a school that is known more for its partying than anything else.  It is going to be loud.  It is going to be rowdy.  It is going to be intense.  It is going to hostile.

If we are prepared and can handle the environment, we win big.  Period.  Their talent does not stack up to our talent.  If we let it get away from us a little, we win, but it will be too close for comfort.  If we aren't focused and it get loose, we could loose, but I don't think that will happen.  Withers will have this team ready to play.

The Good with the Bad in ATL

Looking Back -

The Good with the Bad in ATL

The Broad Strokes

The Bad:

We lost 35-28, giving up 496 yards of total offense for a jaw dropping 6.7 yards per play.

The Good:

Despite two interceptions, one blocked punt and being without starters Erik Highsmith, Zach Brown and Jabari Price, we still had a chance to win with a quarterback starting under center for the first time on the road. 

The Quarterback

The Bad: 

The bad is easy to identify - the interceptions and the sacks.  Possessions are precious against Georgia Tech.  It is a frustrating offense to play against for the defense, so you need to keep them off the field as much as possible. 

Renner's two interceptions were bad and momentum killers.  The first came with less than 5 minutes and 30 seconds to go in the second quarter and two plays after a Tre Boston interception.  With the score UNC 7 - GT 10, the Yellow Jackets used the extra possession to drive 79 yards in 12 plays for a touch down to close the half and push the lead to 10.  To begin the second half, GT got the ball back after deferring the winning toss to go 62 yards in 10 plays over 5 minutes and 13 seconds for a field goal.  A 10 point swing that kept the defense on the field too long and gave Paul Johnson too many opportunities to probe and set up the big play.

The sacks were the product of holding onto the ball too long and unacceptable in a two-minute offense.

The Good:

Renner completed 17 of 25 passes for a completion percentage of 68% with 2 touchdowns.  This was despite four drops in the game.  Renner played really well for a redshirt sophomore starting on the road for the first time.  All of his mistakes are experience mistakes and he will get better with experience.

Most importantly, Renner got the offense going and executed in the second half to get us with a possession of a W.  Renner is a winner.  I know it seems odd to write that considering the loss, but Renner could have retreated mentally, but he didn't.  He showed his mettle.  Bright days are ahead because Renner is leading the way.

The Running Backs

The Bad:

A.J. Blue needs more carries.  I hate arm chair quarterbacks . . . wait for it . . . wait for it . . . BUT . . . oh, you knew it was coming, but in the second quarter when we are running the ball ineffectively with conservative play calling, we need to give Blue the rock and let him pound it between the tackles.  Against UVA, Blue proved he can move a pile and fall forward for positive yards to keep you in 3rd and manageable territory.  Recognize the personnel and take advantage of their strengths.  Blue needs more carries. 

The Good:

Gio Bernard.  Do I really have to get into this?  Yeah!  You know why?  Because it makes me smile.  Bernard had 17 carries for a 155 yards and 2 TDs.  Every time he touches it, you hold your breath.  He may take some tackles behind the line of scrimmage, but his big play ability more than makes up for it.  When it is all said and done, Gio could be record breaking this season.

The Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

Ebron's first TD

The Bad:

Drops.  In the first half, there were several dropped passes that put us in perfect down and distance for blitzes, which stalled our offense and put our defense back on the field.

A Second Receiving Threat.  Dwight Jones is a beast, but we need someone else to step up.  


The Good:

In Erik Highsmith's absence, a couple of young guys, Eric Ebron and TJ Thorpe, emerged with some big plays at key points in the game.  Both deserve a longer look and more opportunities to make plays on offense.  Ebron also caught his first TD.  It was a nice catch off of a sneaky post-route where he showed strong hands in finishing the play by holding onto the ball after a big hit.  

The Offensive Line

The Bad:

In the first half when we were trying to keep the GT offense off the field with conservative, clocking eating running plays, the O-line was unable to open up holes for Gio to pick up 3 or 4 yards a run and stay on schedule.  The defensive line and linebackers were on Gio way too fast.

The Good:

The O-line did a great job in protection.  The sacks that were given up were not because of a break down in coverage.  The sacks were because Renner held onto the ball too long.  The big uglies did a great job in pass protection.  They should also get some credit for Gio's ridiculous running stats too.

The Defensive Line and Linebackers

The Bad:

GT ran for an average of 5.4 yards per rush.  GT had four guys that averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry. 

The Good:

(1) No one was seriously injured.  (2)  Despite the gaudy numbers, the D-line almost did enough to get the road win.  They forced 3 punts and 3 field goal attempts.  Against GT, that is what you need to do.  While almost isn't good enough, the defensive effort of the front seven had a respectable day against a difficult offense to defend. 

The Secondary

The Bad:

The big plays.

The Good:

We don't have to face the Yellow Jackets again.  GT's offensive scheme sucks in the secondary with the run and then attacks over the top of the cheating secondary for big plays and they do it with 6' 5" Stephen Hill.

The Specialist 

The Bad:

Hibbard had a punt blocked.

The Good:

Hibbard continues to be the biggest surprise of the season and an important piece of the field position game with his punting abilities. 

Trace Jones did a much better job kicking the ball deep against GT.  I hope he is able to keep it up.

The Take Away

We have a good football team and will enjoy more success than failure.  If we can learn from our mistakes as well as continue to improve and grow, we will be a tough team to beat by the end of the season.