Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Tar Heel Football - Preseason Preview

Tweets of the Day
CarolinaBlue.com 
Michael Clark 
In the first 25 seconds,Todd Gurley forces fumble, then runs for a td on next play  
Last Night Tarboro-Todd Gurley rushes 9/110, 2 rec /62,3 TDs. NC-Jalen Hendricks QB/CB,57 passing 2 tds,14-128 yds rushing, Fum Ret TD
Here is some video from the Tarboro game that Clark was tweeting about featuring Tar Heel RB prospect Todd Gurley:




Tar Heel Football -
Preseason Preview

The Schedule & Preseason Synopsis



James Madison University 

September 3, 2011
Outlook:  Withers should be looking to set the tone for the season and demonstrate that he deserves the keys to the program long term.  If UNC comes out focused, we will make easy work of the Dukes.  The worst thing that could have happened to JMU was beating Va Tech last year.  No one in Kenan Football Center will overlook them.


Rutgers
September 10, 2011

Outlook:  Football games are won and lost in the trenches.  Rutgers's biggest issue is the offensive line which plays right into UNC's biggest strength, the defensive line.  Add to that the fact that Rutgers will be breaking in a new offense that is heavily reliant on freshman and sophomores and UNC should roll over the Scarlet Knights. 



Virginia 
September 17, 2011

Outlook:  The UNC-UVA rivalry is one of the oldest in all of college sports.  UVA is really young and will probably struggle defensively while breaking in a new signal caller that has not exactly WOW'd in camp.  UNC should handle the ACC season opener easily in the friendly confines of Kenan Football Stadium.  


@ Georgia Tech
September 24, 2011

Outlook:  Georgia Tech will be the first time the Tar Heels will be on the road.  This game will come down to quarterback play.  GT runs a triple-option under Paul Johnson that often leads the nation in rushing.  It is a difficult offense to master and Tevin Washington struggled last year when 3-year starter Josh Nesbitt went down.  While Washington made good option reads, he couldn't throw well enough to keep defenses honest.  The question for the Tar Heels will be how will Renner respond to being on the road in Atlanta.  Dodd Stadium is a good place to get your feet wet if you are a first time starter on the road.  It is not known for being a tough place to play, outside of stopping Paul Johnson's rushing attack.  Despite our defensive struggles against GT's head coach Paul Johnson's flexbone, UNC gets enough stops on defense against a green Tevin Washington. 


@ East Carolina
October 1, 2011

Outlook:  Not only is this a road game, this is a night game in Greenville - one of the most notorious party schools in the southeast.  It will be ROWDY and ECU proved that they can pull off the upset in their biggest home game of the year (see NCSU circa 2010).  This will be the Pirates' Superbowl and a lot of emphasis will be placed on this game by Pirate-nation.  Dowdy-Ficklin will be packed and raucous!  ECU will score, but so will UNC.  ECU's defense is porous.  Even at night with Dowdy-Ficklen rockin', UNC will get more stops than ECU.  The biggest factors will be turnovers.  If the run game is moving the chains and Renner can control his emotions, UNC wins easily.   


Louisville
October 8, 2011

Outlook:  Louisville's projected starter this year is former walk-on Will Stein.  The hope is that Stein will be serviceable this season so that true freshman Teddy Birdgewater can learn the system with a clipboard in his hands.  The positive for Louisville is that they have a strong running game, so Stein only needs to be a minor threat to throw and not a liability.  The biggest question mark for the UNC defense is the secondary and the d-line features a multitude of future NFLers.  Strength against strength, I like UNC's prospects to stop the Cardinal running game that was #32 in the nation last year.  UNC was 22nd in the nation in rush defense, but will be markedly improved with the addition of Sly Williams and sans the NCAA personnel musical chairs. 


Miami
October 15, 2011

Outlook:  Miami has one of the most talented teams in the ACC and Al Golden was supposed to bring the discipline necessary to translate that talent into wins.  Then Nevin Shapiro and Charles Robinson happened.  Now, it is questionable whether the most talented and experienced of the Miami players will be able to suit up and take the field.  Also, for a team that lacked discipline and focus, how are the outside distractions going to effect the on the field play?  If the Hurricanes are without a majority of those twelve implicated player, it will make things much easier for the Heels at home in Chapel Hill. 


@ Clemson
October 22, 2011

Outlook:  There is a theme among most ACC schools this season and that is breaking in first season starters at quarterback.  Taj Boyd is now under center and is running new offensive coordinator Chad Morris's new uptempo spread offense.  So far this spring, the result from Boyd have been underwhelming (despite Clemson's receiving threats on the outside), but the run game has been extremely impressive.  This offense could be problematic for the Heels because it may require introducing a new defensive package or two in preparation to stop four receiver sets with the RB also motioning to split out wide.  In college, gimmick offenses are more effective because of practice restriction limiting the amount of time to prepare.  Could be a problem.  Defensively, Clemson has a lot of heralded new faces, but how well they develop will be the question.  Clemson has always been able to recruit well, but that recruiting acumen has not translated into on the field success since the late 80's, early 90's.  Dabo Sweeney is on a short leash and was an integral part of his predecessor's staff that failed to develop players.  A couple of staff shake ups later, what will be the result?  We will find out on the road in Death Valley in what could be a night game (but probably not). 


Wake Forest
October 29, 2011

Outlook:  My girlfriend graduated from Wake Forest, so it is a program that I pay a little more attention to than most.  Honestly, it is difficult to pay attention to it because no one cares.  They are not good, not exciting, and have an incredibly difficult schedule.  The trip to Chapel Hill may be a short one for the Deacs, but it will be a long ride home.


@ NC State
November 5, 2011

Outlook:  UNC squares off against the not-our-rival Wolfpack in Carter-Finley Stadium ten weeks into the season without a bye week.  Luckily, we get Wake Forest the week prior, so we might be able to rest some bodies if necessary (at least in the second half) that week against Wake to be a little fresher for the Pack.  TOB chased off Tar Heel-cryptonite Russ Wilson and has proclaimed Mike Glennon to be Matt Ryan-lite; however, Glennon has struggled with interceptions, completions, and batted balls throughout fall camp against a defense that is not nearly as dangerous as the Tar Heels.  For most State fans, they could care less about the fact that last year was TOB's first season with a winning record and more about the fact that NCSU has beaten UNC for the past four straight years.  TOB puts a significant amount of emphasis on this game because he knows it is important to keeping his job.  It is difficult to understate the animosity of the Wolfpack fan base has for UNC, especially since they aren't even our true rivals.  However, I have a feeling the Tar Heel football team will be ready and will match that intensity this year, especially Kevin Reddick. 


@ Virginia Tech
November 17, 2011

Outlook:  This will be a Thursday night prime time game and has the potential to be the ACC Coastal championship game.  VT has a soft schedule to break in their new quarterback, Logan Thomas.  Much like Glennon, there has been a lot of media buzz about Thomas, but he has struggled in fall camp and intra-squad scrimmages.  This media hype is a bit of a head scratcher for me considering most programs recruited Thomas to play tight end, he has barely played, and is struggling in camp.  Regardless, the strength of VT will be their offensive line, so you can expect the same Beamer-ball formula: conservative offense that is focused on running the ball with David Wilson, a good defense, and special teams that win the field position battle.  To be successful, Thomas needs to just be decent and VT must stay healthy.  Depth could be come an issue for the Hokies.  The Hokies have already been hit by the injury bug at key positions, so they will need to find away if they loose anymore players at pivotal spots like defensive tackle. 

dook
November 26, 2011

Outlook:  dook is very similar to ECU in terms of style of play and defensive issues.  dook is going to throw the ball forty to fifty times a game (mostly because they can't run the ball) and score some points.  In my opinion, Sean Renfree should be named pre-season All-ACC because he is the only quarterback in the ACC that has demonstrated that he is a quality quarterback over the length of a season.  The only problem is that dook will not be able to stop any ACC offense that is mildly competent.  For UNC, this is always a dangerous game because it is a rivalry game and you never know what can happen in rivalry games. 

UNC's Preseason Record Outlook

The No-Doubt-About-It Ws
James Madison University
Wake Forest
 These are games that we will win without question. 
Projected Record:  2-0


The Write-In-Pencil Ws
Rutgers
Virginia
East Carolina
Louisville
dook
These are the games that we play at home (with the exception of ECU) and should absolutely win, but could loose if the team is not ready to play and we beat ourselves with penalties and turnovers.
Projected Record: 7-0 to 6-1


The Road-Games-That-Give-Me-Pause
Georgia Tech
Miami
Clemson
NC State
These are the games that it is very unreasonable to expect to win all three. They are road games (except Miami) against niche offenses that requires special defensive planning/packages (GT & Clemson) or feature very hostile crowds (Clemson & NC State).  These games are the difference between a decent 8 win season and a good to great 9+ win season.
Projected Record:  10-1 to 8-3


The Battle-For-The-ACC-Coastal Game
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech's schedule is:  App State;  @ECU; Arkansas State; @Marshal; Clemson; Miami; @Wake Forest; Boston College; @dook; bye; @Georgia Tech (Thursday night); UNC (Thursday night); and @UVA.  It is one of the softest schedules I have ever seen.  In the ACC, VT does not have to play anyone on the road with the exception of GT and they get a bye week to prepare for Paul Johnson's triple option offense.  As a result, I fully expect Virginia Tech to come into Lane Stadium when we play them on November 17th to be 6-0 in conference play.  It is very likely that we could be 5-1 in conference play.  Therefore, the winner of this game will most likely play in the ACC Championship game. 
Projected Record:  11-1 to 8-4


Bold Prediction:  

10-2 with an invitation to the Champs Sports Bowl (3rd in ACC)

This team has all the pieces, but youth could rear its ugly head and cost us some wins with inconsistent play.  Also,  we need to get through the year without suffering any major injuries, especially at quarterback and running back.  The offensive and defensive line can get us to 8 wins.  It will depend on Bryn Renner and the running backs as to how far we get past the 8 win water mark.  While we have the talent and depth for the first time since Mack Brown to compete at a national level, we will have to prove that we can at least play in the ACC Championship game.  To do that, we must win the Coastal.  If Virginia Tech's schedule wasn't so absolutely pathetic, I would give us better odds.  That said,  I think this season is going to be a good if not great one!

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