Game Day Preview: Virginia

Game Day Preview:

Virginia Caviler Wahoos

Strength on Strength.  In one of the oldest football rivalries in the country, the way the Tar Heels and Cavilers match up is strength on strength on both sides of the ball.  

UVA RB and North Carolina native Kevin Parks

Virginia is a run first offense.  The Wahoos are 33rd in the country in rushing, averaging 201 yards on the ground per game for 7 touch downs.  The running game is a three headed monster with junior Perry Jones, red shirt freshman Kevin Parks and true freshman Clifton Richardson.  While Perry Jones gets the start, Kevin Parker is the running back that is most productive and finds the endzone the most with five touch downs.  Parker is a diminutive running back, similar to Gio Bernard but not as fast, that has emerged as the go-to guy, running for 151 yards on 27 carries for 5.6 average.  Parker is a North Carolinian, so this will be something of a homecoming for the Salisbury native.  However, his status for Saturday is in doubt after suffering an ankle injury early in the second half of last week's game against Indiana.  Caviler coach Mike London said that he expects Parks to play and has him listed as probable, but he likely will not be close to a 100%.

Regardless of Parks availability and health, you can expect to see plenty of Jones, who is averaging 3.9 yards on 34 carries.  If Parks is unavailable or limited, Clifton Richardson will see more snaps than he has in the previous two games.  Richardson is a bigger back and stronger back than both Jones and Parks.  On 11 carries, Richardson has run for 98 yards for an average of 8.9 per carry.  However, despite Richardson's potential, he is a significant liability in protection (like most true freshmen), so this will be a situation worth monitoring.  If Parks is healthy, Richardson is not likely to be in on many passing plays.  If Parks is limited and Richardson sees extended action, look for UNC defensive coordinator Art Kaufman to test Richardson's pass protection recognition early and often. 

UNC has the third best rush defense in the country and is the strength of the defense.  The weather looks like it may be a little wet on Saturday, so this may be a battle for the line of scrimmage.  The Virginia offensive line is an experienced group that may boast a couple of future NFLers.  So far this season, that unit has been effective in creating running lanes as the Cavs average 4.6 yards per carry.  However, it is a unit that has not really been tested as they have played  Indiana, who gave up 210 yards on the ground to Ball State, and an FCS team in William and Mary.  UNC will represent a significant increase in competition.

For Virginia to be successful offensively, QB Micheal Rocco is going to need to test the secondary.  While Rocco is an accurate passer, he does not have a particularly strong arm.  He throws short and intermediate routes well.  Rocco completes 62.1% of his passes.  Unfortunately, it is for only 6.29 yards per attempt. Allowing UNC to sit on routes without stretching the field is not going to test the secondary.  From what I have seen in two games, either UNC's underneath coverage with linebackers is out of sync in filling their zones or the secondary is cheating too hard on the run and gets caught leaning in.   Regardless of the potential of the playmakers on the outside, if Rocco is unable to deliver the deep ball, they will be neutralized and those bad defensive tendencies will not be exploited.  Finally, watch for RB Jones as he is a quality pass catcher out of the backfield. 

"To big to be playing on a Minnifield" ~ D. Jones

Defensively, Virginia has a quality secondary.  Chase Minnifield is a veteran corner that will probably be covering Dwight Jones.  Minnifield was rated as the 16th top player in the ACC by ESPN blogger Heather Dinich (not sure that is really much of an endorsement).  Last time they played, Jones had a coming out party with 7 catches for 198 yards and 2 TDs.  There is no love lost between the two as Jones posted on Facebook, "To big to be playing on a Minnifield."  I have to admit.  That made me laugh!

Opposite of Minnifield is true freshman Demetrious Nicholson.  If not for the NCAA investigation, Nicholson would probably be a Tar Heel.  He has earned a starting spot and is playing well with one INT already on the year.

Virginia will represent a more orthodox challenge for the UNC offensive line.  Unlike Rutgers who stunted and brought pressure from all over the field, Virginia will bring a more conventional attack.  This will be a good measuring stick for the progress of the offensive line.  I expect that they should be able to control the line for scrimmage and get a nice push for Bernard, Houston and hopefully AJ Blue.

If we can clean up the turnovers and penalties, UNC should be able to cruise to the double digit that Vegas has predicted.  However, this is still one of the oldest rivalries in college football and UNC hasn't won an ACC season opener in 10 years.  Hopefully, that is a streak that will come to an end on Saturday.   

5 Things I Will Be Watching

Eric Ebron's first career catch

1. MBPO -Missed Big Play Opportunities.  We need to turn the tide on the turnover margin.  If an opportunity is presented for an INT or forced fumble recovery, we need to capitalize.  I never thought we would be two games into the season without a turnover.
2. Penalties - We have been far too penalized and need to clean that up.
3. Ryan Houston - In the first two games, Houston appeared to be a little gun shy.  I remember Houston being a back that would put his head down to initiate contact and grind out a final two or three yards at the end of the run.  Remember the hit on Tre Boston in the Spring Game (http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/allaccess/?media=241207 - at the 50 second mark).  So far this season since his return from shoulder surgery, Houston is doing a lot more dancing and not lowering the boom on the linebackers and safeties trying to make the tackle.  I am a little concerned.
4. Tight Ends - The tight ends have not really been targeted in the first couple of games.  They are a huge weapon in Shoop's offense because, if you have to respect them in passing routes, you can get single coverage on the outside and it creates a mismatch with linebackers in coverage.  I hope to see them, especially Eric Ebron, get a little more involved in the passing game.  
5. Bryn Renner - I expect bad throws and interceptions from a new quarterback, but I also expect progress.  As the season goes on, I want to see him get rid of it quicker if nothing is there to avoid unnecessary hits.  Renner is better than advertised and it is going to be an exciting year with him under center.  I would prefer he not take any more hits than necessary, especially against a team like Rutgers that was diving at his knees.

Colin Cowherd Hearts UVA Football

Expanding on Expansion with the Longhorns

Tweet of the Day

ChipBrownOB Chip Brown

ACC appears to be gaining steam for a possible move involving Texas if Big 12 falls apart. ... http://bit.ly/qECav9 #big12 #hookem

Expanding on ACC Expansion - 

Hook'em Horns Edition

Chip Brown is something of an unofficial, unaffiliated, three degrees of separation mouthpiece for the Texas athletics department.  Therefore, when he posts something on conference expansion concerning Texas, you need to take a step back and consider the motives.  To me, there are two possibilities for Brown's recent Texas to the ACC posts:

1. Gamesmanship - Conference realignment is just an extension of the Red River Rivalry.  This past weekend the leadership of Oklahoma and Texas met to discuss the future of the Big XII.  Texas came away with the impression that the Oklahoma train has already left the Big XII station and is heading west to the Pac-12.  Is Oklahoma trying to force Texas's hand for equal revenue share in exchange for keeping the Big XII intact?  Is this Texas trying to let Oklahoma know that it won't just automatically follow it to the Pac-12, i.e. leverage?  Is the leverage message intended for the Pac-12 or is it the Big 10?
2. Opinion Maker/Propaganda - Is this the first step in selling the move the ACC for the Long Horns?  A review of the free boards over at OrangeBloods.com reveals that it is not an immediately popular sentiment.  Free boards aren't really the place for good information or informed opinions though.

You can read Chip Brown's post for the reasons why the ACC makes more sense than the Pac-12, but I realize that most people don't want to invest the time so here is a synopsis:

1. Student Athlete - traveling east is easier on student athletes gaining hours across timezones when returning home after games versus losing hours traveling equal distance west.
2. Academics - the ACC is the strongest BCS conference and it is not even close.  Texas is a nice fit academically, better than the Pac-12. 
3. Football and Basketball - While the ACC has underperformed recently, it has rich tradition.  FSU, Miami, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech for football.  ACC's basketball tradition is unquestionable. 
4. The non-revenue sports - The ACC is a strong conference for non-revenue sports, especially baseball and women's basketball.  Texas is a nice fit.
5. The Longhorn Network (LHN)- 

This could easily be No. 1 on the list. It's that important for Texas to hold together LHN.

It will be a bit of a sales job and will require the help of ESPN, but in all likelihood Texas can keep the Longhorn Network and its revenue ($15 million per year for 20 years) by going to the ACC, something the Pac-12 would be unwilling to consider.

The ACC is in the first year of a new, 12-year deal with ESPN, which controls the Tier 1, 2 and 3 TV rights in the ACC. And with no Big 12 left to spend money on (in all likelihood), ESPN can probably help make the Longhorn Network palatable to the ACC by giving the ACC a break-the-bank television deal with Texas on board that will blow the ACC members away.

Consider it a reward to the ACC for accepting Texas' unique revenue stream. But there would be incentive for the ACC to take Texas. The Southeastern Conference and Big Ten stand to poach schools out of the ACC if it appears the college arms race is leading to 16-team super conferences.

Why does it makes senses for the ACC?  Same reasons. 

Texas is a good fit because of academics, school values as a research institution and overall sports culture (broad view, not just limited to football).  Additionally, the expansion into Texas for the ACC media markets will create a huge increase in Tier 1 media rights value.  There is a preexisting contractual relationship with the ACC, Texas, and ESPN, such that the contracts can be amended to reflect the substantial increase in market value for the addition of Texas and the Texas media market.

Further, I am of the opinion that ACC schools don't have anything to fear from the LHN because no schools directly compete against them geographically.  It is hard for an east coast school to go into Texas and pluck out most recruits.  Forget about a national recruit.  In the case of the ACC member schools, an unequal division of revenue (that is primarily derived from the Texas geographic region any way) is not going to change that.  The LHN would like to broadcast 2-3 Tier 2 or Tier 3 home games a year as well as the Texas spring game.  The revenue that is derived from the LHN is driven by people willing to pay a premium to watch the Longhorns lineup against and play an FCS team or the dooks/BCs/WFs of the college football world.  That game has no national or regional interest, outside of Texas; therefore, why not let Texas keep the value that it creates because of who it is?  It does not harm the rest of the ACC as it did Texas A&M, Oklahoma, or Arkansas which were trying to compete in the burnt orange shadow of UT.  Which begs the question -

• if Texas joins the ACC, do you add regional schools, e.g. Baylor, Missouri, Kansas, to prevent Texas isolation or do you intentional create isolation to prevent the animosity that was created in the Big XII because of the Longhorn Network that ultimately made it crumble?

As any good lawyer would tell you, it depends.  It depends on how the dominoes start to fall, once they start to fall, in expansion.  So where and how do you start?  A blue print. 

The blue print for ACC expansion would be into four 4-team pods.  The benefits of the pod system would be:

• Preserve regional rivalries
• Reduce travel expense, especially for non-revenue sports
• Manufactures additional end of season intrigue

Preserve regional rivalries - When you have four superconferences, you are going to loose some regional rivalries if you aren't careful.  Teams need to play year in and year out to maintain a healthy level of disdain.  Imagine how irrelevant NC State would be if they hadn't beaten us for the past four years.  They have had only one winning season over that time and would be a complete after thought, even though Raleigh is only 30 minutes down the road from Chapel Hill, if we didn't play them every year.  Additionally, if you have two 8-team divisions with seven division games a year, you seriously impede your ability to schedule games out of conference or even across divisions.  If you have an 8-team division and you don't play everyone in your division, what is the point?  You are begging for controversy if you have an unbalanced schedule within the division.

For Texas, the 4-team pod will allow a flexibility of schedule that will enable them to continue the Red River Rivalry as well as the Texas A&M rivalry (if the Aggies are willing to schedule it).  This will also help Florida State, Clemson, and Georgia Tech with scheduling balance while maintaining their traditional in-state rivalry games.

For traditional football powers that are competing on the national stage, there will be at least two marquee games in-conference games anually.  The first would be the in-pod rivalry that would develop.  In my illustrative hypothetical, I paired Texas and Clemson.  Remember, it is only a hypothetical and could easily be another team that is a better fit depending on expansion.  The second marquee game will be discussed later in the post.  I am calling it "Pod Match Up Game."  Sexy, I know.

Reduce Travel Expenses - This pretty self-explanatory.  If you need to more detail, please quit reading my blog.  You just looking at it is dumbing it down and that is saying something. 

End of Season Intrigue - First of all, a disclaimer:  I have not seen my idea in print or heard about it from anyone, which is disappointing because my plan is genius if I do say so myself.  I call it the

"Four Pod Play-in Plan"

There is nothing more exciting than a playoff.  Therefore, instead of scheduling eight firm conference games (three pod games and five out-of-pod games), schedule seven conference games (three pod games and four out-of-pod games) and a "pod match up game" in the final week of the season.  Rank the pods by strength, one through four, according to total BCS system points.  Match up the strongest pod's team against the weakest pod's team - 1v1, 2v2, 3v3, and 4v4 such that the 1v1 is a play-in game to conference championship.  Match up the second and third strongest pods in the same way.

For illustration purposes, in my hypothetical scenario, the ACC adds Texas, Missouri, Notre Dame and Pitt.  Why Texas, Missouri, Notre Dame, and Pitt?  Expanded media footprint with large state schools that value excellence in both academics and sports.  Notre Dame is a reach but if Texas joins the ACC while maintaining the LHN, a similar proposition could be accepted by the Irish.  I digress though.  The four pods are broken down as such with the order of finish within each individual pod:

     North Pod            East Pod               West Pod     South Pod
1 - Notre Dame         Virginia Tech       Texas           Florida State
2 - Maryland             North Carolina     Clemson      Georgia Tech
3 - Pittsburgh            NC State              Missouri      Miami  
4 - Boston College    Virginia               dook            Wake Forest

Hypothetically and for illustrative purposes, the North Pod is first because it has the most aggregate BCS points of all the pods, i.e. the combined total BCS points for Notre Dame, Maryland, Pittsburgh and BC are more than the total for each of the other individual pods.  The East Pod is last because it has the fewest aggregate BCS points of all the pods.  Therefore, the North 1 (Notre Dame) would play the East 1 (Virginia Tech), the North 2 (Maryland) would play East 2 (North Carolina), ect.  The West Pod 1 (Texas) would play the South Pod 1 (Florida State), West Pod 2 (Clemson) against South Pod 2 (Georgia Tech), ect.  In the pod match up game, the team with the most BCS points gets home field advantage, home field is not assigned to the pod.  This rewards the better team with an additional home game and home game revenues.  

Further, the 1v1 games are play-in games to the ACC championship game.  Therefore, the winner of Notre Dame-Virginia Tech would play the winner of Texas-Florida State in the ACC championship game. 

It would create a mini-conference tournament that combines "the entire season is a play off" theory with an actual playoff is a playoff plan.  Talk about exciting.  The ACC would guarantee two marquee nationally relevant games to close the regular season and build excitement towards the ACC championship game.  Imagine the ESPN coverage in the week leading up the championship game.

This has value, just like Texas in the ACC.

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly: Post-Rutgers Stats

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

Post-Rutgers Stats Edition

The Good

UNC is 2-0.

Offense

• Tar Heels had 405 yards of total offense against Rutgers.

• Bryn Renner went 20-26 for 273 yards for an average of 10.5 per attempt. 

• Renner is also 12th nationally in passing efficiency (.875) and 28th nationally in total offense (284 ypg).

Gio Bernard is too good to not have a nickname.

• Gio Bernard ran for 81 yards and 2 TDs on 16 carries for an average of 5.1 yards per carry.

• Bernard is 15th nationally in scoring (12 ppg).  Bernard is a "don't blink, you don't want to miss it" running back.

• Dwight Jones had 6 catches for 135 yards and a touchdown, averaging 22.5 yards per catch

• Jones is 18th nationally in receptions (7.5 rpg) and 15th nationally in receiving yards (125.50 ypg).

• The offensive line has yet to give up a sack and Tar Heel ball carriers (including wide receivers) are averaging 5.32 per tot when you factor out Renner's runs (because no way he has any designed runs).   

• UNC is 24th nationally in 3rd down conversion percentage, converting 47.4% of 3rd downs on 9 of 19 attempts.  

• While 47th nationally in scoring, UNC is 107th in 3rd down attempts and has yet to go for it on 4th down.  

• UNC has scored on 10 of 18 offensive possessions that did not end with a turnover, with 9 touchdowns on 24 total offensive offensive possessions (9 TDs, 1 FG, 6 punts, 6 turnovers, 2 clock run outs).  Pretty good offensive efficiency. 

Gio Bernard acknowledging his lead blocker.  Good read.

 Mother inspires Heels' Bernard on every play

Defense

• Kareem Martin had a great game on Saturday and was recognized as the defensive player of the game.

• Rutgers was held to 1 yard rushing on 25 attempts. 

"You say hello.  I say good bye."  Bye Huggins.  Enjoy Rutgers.

• UNC is 14th nationally in total team defense (227.5 ypg) and 3rd in rush defense (30 ypg).

• UNC is 5th nationally in sacks (9 for 44 yards lost).   

• Zach Brown is 11th nationally in sacks (2.5).

• Quinton Coples is 18th nationally in sacks (2.0).

Got to give it to Rutgers QB Chris Dodd.  He kept getting up.

Special Teams

• TJ Thorpe returned 5 kicks for 155 yards and an average starting field position of UNC 32 yard line for returned kicks against Rutgers.

• Thorpe is 28th in the country in kickoff returns with an average of 26.75 yards per return.

• Thomas Hibbard had 3 punts on the game and none of those punts were returned (indicative of good hang time)against Rutgers.

• With only 5 punts on the year, Hibbard is averaging 40.6 yards per punt on the year.

The Bad

Mohamed Sanu had 13 catches for 119 yds.

• Against Rutgers, we couldn't get off the field, allowing Rutgers to move the chains on 3rd or 4th and long (8 or more to go) on 5 of 12 opportunities.  This is unacceptable for a defense as talented as this.  Whether it is schematic or personnel, changes need to be made to sure up the defense on passing downs. 

• Average field position for Rutgers on kick offs was on the Rutgers' 30.75 yard line.  The kicks are not getting deep enough and this hurts the coverage team, who also has room for improvement. 

• Against Rutgers, 5 turn overs - 3 INTs and 2 fumbles lost.  The football was on the ground more than twice and we were lucky to recover the fumbles.  Ball security and field position are how you loose football games when you are dominating the line of scrimmage and every offensive category. 

• MBPO - Missed Big Play Opportunities.  Not taking advantage of turnover opportunities when presented, Merletti and Heffernan had great opportunities at potential Pick-6s and could not come up with the interceptions.  With the dominance of our defensive line, we need to start winning the turnover margin category by capitalizing on the opportunities. 

• Bryn Renner took way too may hits on Saturday. 

• The officiating was the worst I have ever seen against Rutgers.  The list of bad and phantom calls from the Big Least crew that officiated the game that went against us was looooooong.  However, good teams don't let official beat them.  WHAT! Scoreboard!

• In two weeks with one of the most dominant defensive lines in college football, there has yet to be a hold call against an opposing offense we are facing.   Huh?  That can't be right.  

• UNC is currently tied for 30th nationally for penalties with 14, 23rd for penalty yards with 129, and 8th nationally for penalties on first down with 5.  Obviously, we need to clean this up.  

The Ugly

• Aluminum bleachers - even if it is hot, get to the game.  Support this team - get to the Hill early for the Old Well Walk and stay through the final whistle to sing Hark the Sound with me.

This RIDICULOUS! Our players deserve better.

Game Day Preview: FUCK Rutgers

JMU Rear View

42-10

Coach Withers

Good:

Bryn Renner

Bryn Renner - Renner completed 22 of 23 pass attempt for 277 yds and 2 TDs.  Renner set an ACC record for single game completion percentage at 95.7%, narrowly missing the NCAA record set by Tee Martin at Tennessee at 95.8%.  Renner looked really comfortable in the pocket, made quick decisions on check downs, good reads, and moved very well to avoid the pass rush.  Not bad for his first start, huh?  All I have to say is, Renner was as good as advertised.

Better:

O-line opening huge running lane for Ryan Houston.

The Offensive Line - Ryan Houston, Gio Bernard, and A.J. Blue combined for158 yards rushing on 30 attempts for an average of 5.27 per carry.  Add to that the great job the line did in pass protection as the line not only did not give up a sack, but Renner was never really hit.  The offensive line turned in a dominate performance, opening huge holes for big runs on both the left and right side of the line and was consistently down field pick up blocks away from the line of scrimmage.  Big time play from the offensive line.

Best:

The Game Ball - The game ball was awarded to Butch Davis that watched the game from the Blue Zone.  It was an incredibly classy move by Coach Withers and the players.

Kevin Reddick celebrating the win with the team.

Game Day Preview:

FUCK Rutgers

Last week, I provided an objective breakdown of JMU that featured the key match ups that Dukes would need to take advantage of to have a chance in the opener.  This week, not so much. 

FUCK RUTGERS.

I watched their game against NC Central.  While the Scarlet Knights might have won 48-0, it was not impressive.  NC Central was playing their first game as a Division 1 football team and it showed.  It was not a dominant Rutgers performance.  Rutgers was 8-17 on third down, rushed for an average of 3.3 yards per carry, and completed less than 50% of their passes.

FUCK SCHIANO.

Fact - Schiano and Rutgers put together a 3-ring binder that compiled every negative article about UNC and gave it to recruits that were considering both Rutgers and UNC last year.  Fact!

Fact - Schiano is already spewing coach-speak in anticipation of loosing.

http://www.scarletknights.com/vision/cove2-fb.html

"This OL is a good as we'll face. They're huge, they're athletic, they're experienced. I don't know what they're not. They're very good."

"He's as good as I've seen. I've heard over the years how talented he is and he's been playing behind a guy that really knew their system (T.J. Yates) but this kid is something else. I read somewhere that they're calling him 'Baby Brett Farve,' and I can see why. He's mobile, he's got a cannon and can make every throw and not a ball hit the ground on Saturday. I don't know if I've ever seen that in a college football game. He's good. Very good."

FUCK SAVON HUGGINS.

For a little background, Huggins was an Under-Armour All-American running back that was heavily recruited by UNC.  In fact, Huggins was UNC primary running back target.  Coach Mo, Coach Browning, and Coach Davis put in countless hours, significant effort, and substantial resources into recruiting Huggins, who made his announcement shortly before national signing day.  Heading into his announcement, no one knew who he was going to decide for.  The build up to his announcement was immense. Go ahead and start playing it at the 1:15 mark.

Yeah.  That happened.  And that happened for at least 7 seconds.

You know what?  So did this

Huggins, see you Saturday!

I look forward to you meeting Donte Paige-Moss,
Quinton Coples, Tydreke Powell, 

Zach Brown, Kevin Reddick, Ebele Okakpu, ect.

If you want a break down, Greg Barnes did a nice job this week with his Opponent Preview: Rutgers.  

Bottom line:  UNC is bigger, more athletic, and better than Rutgers in every phase of the game.

The Basketball Recruiting 

Buzz Is Buzzing

The message boards have been buzzing lately with recruiting news.  Nothing concrete, but it appears that things may be falling into place with several key recruits.  There have been rumblings that Kaleb Tarczewski is starting to lean toward UNC, but these are only rumblings based on Tarc's contact with Coach Williams and Tarc pushing back his decision.  Additionally, TJ Warren recently visited campus, the visit went really well, and UNC may be in the drivers seat. Warren is back with Mitch McGary, who is currently on an official visit.  Warren and McGary are teammates and very close.  The opportunity to play with Warren  in UNC's up tempo offense could help with McGary's recruitment.  McGary is being hosted by Kendall Marshall, which has to be a good thing if you like to play with a point guard that is going to put you in a position to score easily.  The bad thing is that McGary is heading dook right after his official with us.  The perfect scenario would be to get commitments from Tarc at the five, McGary at the four, and Warren at the three.  Hold your breath.  It may happen.  If Tarc commits at the five, then McGary and Warren get run in their preferred spots the four and three.  IT WOULD BE EPIC!

EDIT:  Tarc isn't going to happen, but there will be some good news soon.

Also, Nate Britt, one of the top point guards in the country from the 2013 class, was on campus this past Saturday for an unofficial visit.  Britt plays his AAU ball for the same DC Assault that Kendal Marshall played for and has a good relationship with Marshall.  The visit went well and I can only hope Britt has the opportunity to become the next great UNC point guard.

Game Day Preview James Madison University

 

Game Day Preview:

James Madison University 

The Breakdown:

Last year JMU opened up the season against Virginia Tech and upset the Hokies in Lane Stadium.  Virginia Tech did not loose another game that season until the Orange Bowl.  JMU went on to finish the season 6-5 as an average CAA team.

Vidal Nelson

JMU's biggest strength is its defense, where the Dukes return most of its starters.  The strength of that defense is in the secondary and linebackers.  Preseason All-CAA strong safety Vidal Nelson leads a very experienced secondary.  Nelson has started 29 games and played in every game since his red shirt freshman season.  He is an aggressive, hard-nosed difference maker for the Dukes.  The linebacking core is anchored by Pat Williams and Stephon Robertson.  Williams and Robertson led the Dukes in tackles in 2010 and offer a nice combination of experience and youth.  Williams is a fith year senior that has started 31 games in his career, while Robertson started 10 games as a red shirt freshman to earn CAA Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.

The key defensive matchup for the Dukes is going to be the front four.  In order for Williams and Robertson to be effective, the front four is going to have to engage the Tar Heel offensive line and keep the linebackers clean to make tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage.  This should be an advantage for the Tar Heel offense.  The Tar Heel offensive line is the biggest and most athletic it has possibly ever been in Chapel Hill.  We have a significant size advantage in the trenches.  Like with most pro-style offenses, the Tar Heels will look to establish the run and build the passing game off the run.  With the disparity of size in the trenches, the O-line should get a nice push and open up solid running lanes for Houston, Bernard and Blue.  We should be able to move the ball easily.

Scott Noble

Offensively, the Dukes have a lot of question marks and the Tar Heel defense is not the best place to start when trying to answer those questions.  JMU's leading returning rusher and passer from 2010 is WR Dee'Quan Scott.   Obviously, Scott is a great athlete, but it takes a little more than athleticism at this level and it has to be concerning for the Dukes that their leading returning rusher is a wide receiver.

Last season, the Dukes ran a run-based offense, but will have to replace their leading rusher RB Jamal Sullivan, who they lost to graduation.  Scott Noble, who rushed for 360 yards and 3 TDs in 2010, returns and is now the man in the backfield.  Noble should have a little more running room as opponents should have to respect the passing game more than they did last year.  JMU will theoretically be upgrading at QB by replacing underwhelming graduate Drew Dudzik.  Justin Thorpe, who suffered a season ending injury after just three carries last year, is a dual threat quarterback that impressed in 2009 by winning the CAA Rookie of the Year award.  He beat out Jace Edwards and K-State transfer Billy Cosh for the starting spot despite the high expectations for both Edwards and Cosh.  However, JMU's coach has said that Edwards may get some snaps this Saturday.  It appears to be an unresolved situation for JMU with a starting QB that relies heavily on his ability to run coming back from a significant injury.

The Dukes's run-based offense that is breaking in new personnel has a daunting task against our front seven, which is arguably one of the best in the country with four projected NFL first rounders.  It will probably be a frustrating day for JMU head coach Mickey Matthews as he has taken back offensive play calling.

I Will Be Watching . . . 

• Special Teams - Last year we struggled with field position and that cost us at least two games.  While coverage was a challenge because of an NCAA and injury depleted roster, the distance on the punts and kick offs was concerning.  I will be watching to see who and how far the ball is traveling on special teams. 

Ryan Houston

• Ryan Houston and Gio Bernard - Both have been wearing no-contact jerseys throughout a significant portion of fall camp.  It always makes me nervous when guys are getting hit for the first time so close to live action.  Ball security and re-injury is a concern.  I will be watching to see how much work these two guys get because they are so important to our season. 

• The Secondary - The secondary will give up some big plays on the season.  We have a young, inexperienced secondary so you have to expect some inconsistent play.  However, this inexperience and youth should not cost us any games and we have the type of schedule that is perfect for gaining experience before we will be put in a position where one mistake can cost us the game.  I will be watching to see how well the Rude Boyz communicate coverage and making mental notes on the progress this unit makes throughout the season.  

John Shoop

• Play calling -  Under Coach Davis, OC John Shoop had his hands tied as Butch would radio in plays on more than a couple of occasions a game.  I expect us to focus on the run, but I am interested to see how deep into the play book Shoop gets.  I want to be aggressive and throat punch teams.  We have explosive offensive weapons and would like to see Shoop take advantage of those by helping Renner get into a rhythm and taking chances in the third quarter once the game is put away.  I traditionally don't believe in blowing teams out, especially FCS teams, but this year I want three touchdown victories in every game.  I will be watching to see how exotic our game plan is and how it develops as the game goes on.

Bold Prediction

UNC 38 - JMU 6

Offensive Stat Leaders

Rushing:  Houston - 115 yds, 3 TDs

Passing:  Renner - 18/23, 245 yds, 1 TD

Receiving:  Jones - 3 rec, 85 yds, 1 TD

Defensive Team Stats

Less than 225 yds of total offense, 5 sacks, 1 INT