Game Day Preview: Clemson Tigers

Game Day Preview -

Clemson Tigers

This Saturday UNC heads to Clemson to play an undefeated Tiger team in Death Valley.  Clemson does it right on gameday, so the atmosphere will be more electric than any that UNC has played in all year.  I think this is a good thing.  The energy of a crowd transfers down to the field for both home and visiting team alike.  If there is one thing that this team has done in recent weeks, it is sleep walk through the first two quarters.  Coming out in a high energy environment will probably be advantageous to our Tar Heels, so I look for a fast start.  I know what you are thinking - this is going to be a hostile crowd.  So fucking what?  It won't be more hostile than the crowd at the Music City Bowl.  While that was a different time with a different team and a different head coach, our guys have been there and done that, so I don't think we will be overwhelmed.  Instead, I think it gives us an edge.  Tar Heels against the world!  Let their energy feed our fire!

Key Matchups

Dwayne Allen

I am not going to reinvent the wheel this week.  Greg Barnes always does a great job and this week is no exception.  Check it out - Opponent Preview: Clemson.

The one match up that Greg Barnes did not touch on that I think is important to Clemson's success is TE Dwayne Allen, the number one tight end prospect on Todd McShay's NFL draft board.  Allen is a big, athletic tight end that averages fourteen yards a catch, largely because he is so difficult to tackle.  How UNC lines up against Allen will dictate the coverage on the freshman phenom Sammy Watkins and gap intergrity against RB Andre Ellington and mobile QB Taj Boyd.  I think this is the key defensive match up to the game.

Key To The Game

Dabo Swinney is a terrible football coach.  Terrible.  However, he is a great recruiter and a great football CEO.  Dabo is a great figure head for the Clemson football program, but more importantly he was smart enough to hire Chad Morris with just one year of college experience at Tulsa as an offensive coordinator after being an extremely successful Texas high school football coach. I think it is fair to liken Chad Morris to Coach Eric Taylor of Friday Night Lights.  You remember Friday Night Lights, right?



Man, I miss that show!  Anyway, now Clemson has a high octane offense under Morris's leadership. 

Chad Morris is a Gus Malzahn disciple and has the Tigers humming.  Clemson is averaging 38.5 points per game against FBS competition, which is 13th best in the country.  The key to Chad Morris's offense is tempo.  Morris targets 80 snaps a game.  According to a Bruce Feldman Stats That Matter CBS Sports blog entry,

"We feel like like it does a lot of things for us," Morris said. "By getting 80 or more, it tells us that we've had great tempo through the course of the game. We have a chance to wear down a defense. Obviously if you've had 80 snaps, you're having success because you look at your average scoring and it's about one out of every 15 to 18 snaps. Your conversion rates go up. All of that stuff. Everything works hand-in-hand. It's just something we target. We chart it every day. I know at halftime if we have 44 snaps, you double it, and I know we're on track."

The hand-in-hand part goes like this: The added pace that enables Morris' offense to get into a rhythm also takes a physical and emotional toll on the defense, which ups the frequency of the Tigers hitting more big plays as the game wears on. Defenders wilt, becoming more prone to busted assignments and just having trouble getting lined up before the ball is snapped and end up caught out of position. "There's no question about that," he says. "We've doubled the output of big plays in six games from what they had this time last year just because of what we're doing tempo wise."

Clemson Offensive Coordinator Chad Morris

Contrary to Chad Morris's philosophy, John Shoop's offensive approach is very conservative, slow and methodical.  I don't know what offensive identifiers Shoop focuses on, but pace is not something that concerns him.  Currently, Clemson is averaging 78.5 plays per game against FBS schools, while UNC is averaging 60.3.  Note, this is number of plays, not snaps.  I don't know the number of snaps which would include plays unaccounted for on drive charts because of penalties.  

One of the statics I like to look at to determine offensive efficiency is yards per play.  UNC averages 6.31 yards per play.  Clemson averages 6.23.  While UNC holds a slight edge here, it is insignificant because of the pace of play the Tigers attack with.  With the extra plays, Clemson dominates the total offense static.  Clemson is averaging 489 yards per game, while UNC is averaging 381.2.  The difference is the pace of play and it shows up on the score board.  Clemson has 271 points on the year to 153 by UNC.  Further, Clemson (12.2) is averaging almost one full possession more per game than UNC (11.5).  Why is that scary?  Clemson is averaging 2.96 points per possession with UNC averaging 2.22.  Obviously, Chad Morris is on to something.   

For UNC to win, the Tar Heels must slow down the Clemson attack.  Literally.  Slow it down by limiting their snaps.  According Stats That Matter, "[i]n the Tigers first two games, the players, especially first-time starting QB Tajh Boyd, were still getting up to speed, literally. They ran off 72 snaps in each. But they followed up that by rolling up 92 snaps against FSU and Auburn. At Virginia Tech, they fell back to 67."  The only time this season that Clemson has failed to score 35 or more was against VT.  Luckily for Clemson, VT's offense was pathetic that night and only managed 3 points because of a struggling Logan Thomas (15/27 for 125 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT).  As a result, Clemson won comfortably 23-3.  Hopefully, Kaufman loaded up the VT game film and took notes.

If the numbers aren't enough to impress you, listen to what Urban Meyer has to say:



Yup.  I guess this would be a good time to tell you that our new AD tried to hire Chad Morris back to Tulsa as the head coach when Todd Graham left for Pitt.  While Morris is not at the top of the coaching list for Bubba's coaching search, it would not surprise me to find out if Morris was number four or five on the list.

What To Watch

(1)  Attacking Defense.  See my last post.  The defensive scheme is too soft, too conservative and, worse, too predictable.  If we are going to win, we need to attack Taj Boyd.  We need to hit him early and hit him often.  The best defense against an uptempo offense is to get them out of rhythm.  We need to jam the receivers off the line and make Boyd beat us under duress.  This is an offense that wants to get player-makers in space and a soft zone will be a slow death.  Eight yards at a time.  Limit the snaps by taking chances on defense that are designed to create negative plays and poor decisions, especially on 3rd down.  Scheme to win, not to not loose.  (YEAH!  Effective double negatives are so hard to pull off!)

(2)  The Offense Play Calling.  We should be able to run the ball against Clemson.  I don't know if they have a good defense.  Statically, they do.  In reality (not on paper), Clemson has played with comfortable leads that allowed them to pin their ears back and go after the quarterback, who had to throw because of the score board.  By running the ball, we can win the TOP battle and hopefully limit their possessions and snaps.  However, if the offense is too bland and the Clemson defense is able to attack, creating negative plays, we get off schedule and the outcome will not be good for the Heels.  

(3)  Special Teams.  We don't get the ball deep on kickoffs.  Clemson's Sammy Watkins is one of the most dangerous return men in the country at any level.  This is not a good combination. 

Pressure Busts Pipes

YTSOTD

YouTube Song of the Day

Jay Z & Mya - Best of Me

You see what I did there.  Mya and Jay Z are rocking the Carolina jerseys and I tied it together with the name of the post as one of Jay Z's lyrics is pressure busts pipes.  Yeah, I know.  I am fucking clever

Pressure Busts Pipes

This Tar Heel defense is soft.  The players aren't soft.  In fact, the players will bust your ass and lay you out.  How about a demonstration from Mr. Charles Brown:

Yeah.  It is not the players that are soft.  It is the scheme and it is killing us softly.

After watching the Miami game again, I got madder and madder.  We are wasting the strength of our defense playing a soft cover zone.  If you look at Jacory Harris's numbers, they are misleading because I doubt more than ten passes traveled farther than four yards beyond the line of scrimmage.  Why?  Because our DBs were playing off about ten yards off the line of scrimmage!  If you were an offensive coordinator, why wouldn't you throw bubble screens and pick up a minimum of four yards a clip until they stop you.  FUCK!

According to Withers,

“It’s about playing fundamental football.  Knowing that some of those guys that are like Sammy Watkins are going to make some plays, you just hope they don’t hurt you with big plays. Early in the game [against Miami], Travis Benjamin caught a couple of bubble passes and everybody in the crowd goes, ‘Ooohhh, ahhh.’ Well, I’d rather for them to be catching the bubble passes than the 60-yard bombs down the field. We can tackle those and live to another day.”

Not good enough!  Period.  How did those drives early in the fucking game turn out?  I'll give you a fucking hint.  There weren't any punts or turnovers!

Pressure busts pipes, not soft cover zones that allow the quarterback to sit back and wait for a receiver to find a soft spot in the zone.  Our defensive scheme is soft.  Worse yet, it is fucking predictable.  I am tired of watching the chains move on third and long because the opposing QB knows he is going to get a clean look to make a clean throw behind max protect against a three man defensive front that isn't going to bring any exotic pressure so he will have more than ample time to wait for a WR to come open.  I'll take the big plays.   Especially if they are low percentage throws like that Travis Benjamin TD that was an over the shoulder catch over Jabari Price on a short drag route that Benjamin curled up along the sideline in the second quarter.  Price had pretty good coverage, but it was a quality throw.  A quality throw not made under duress.  

I mentioned the strength of our defense.  You know who recognizes the strength of our defense.  Dabo FUCKING Swinney!

"Their (defensive) front four, all of them guys will play on Sunday, and a couple of the backups, too." 

Yeah.  So TURN UP THE FUCKING HEAT!  We see a lot of max protect and there is a reason.  Our front four is nothing to fuck with but I don't give a fuck because we are not capitalizing on that advantage!  Have our corners play bump-and-run coverage and bring the house on every fucking down.  If they keep seven in for protection, we bring eight.  I am tired of seeing Coples double teamed and teams not paying the price for taking a player out of the pattern.  You know what happens when Coples has an offensive lineman isolated in one-on-one?  Good fucking things for Tar Heels.  You know what happens when you overload a zone and bring more defenders than blockers and you have a front four like we have?  I don't fucking either and I am pretty FUCKING pissed off that I don't!

Let me repeat.  FUCKING BRING THE DAMN HEAT!  Don't scheme not to loose.  Scheme to take their fucking lives!



Against Miami, we came out prepared to stop Lamar Miller and we did.  Unfortunately, we did not come out prepared to put pressure on Jacory Harris, who has showed that he will make bad decisions under duress. 

Hey Coach Withers, the time to be conservative has passed.  If you don't think Sammy Watkins doesn't have the capability to take a bubble screen to the house, you haven't watched the same Clemson team I have. We have two losses in the Coastal because we played not to loose.  I am tired of being that team that looses by less than a touchdown.  When you scheme not to loose, you scheme not to win either.  Bubba Cunningham is looking to bring in an explosive, high scoring offense.  Withers needs to put the foot on the gas on both offense and defense.  High risk, high reward.  We have the personnel to be successful if he lets them play in a scheme to be excited about.  We have incredible team speed.  Use it.  Now is the time!  If you want to create some energy because our guys are coming out flat, give them something to be excited about.  If you want the crowd to be energized, give them something get fired up about!  FUCK!  Coach like you want this fucking job.  Bubba ain't fucking around.  He is looking to market this program with an exciting brand of football.  8-5 records with close wins and closer losses ain't going to get it done, especially when it is plodding football.  I mean, do I have to say it one more time?

Game Day Preview - Miami

Late Night with Roy

Midnight Madness and the start of basketball season is this Friday.  I will begin basketball posts soon, but I can sum up all you need to know in one sentence - WE ARE REALLY, REALLY, REALLY FUCKING GOOD!!! (all caps and three explanation points)  The official visitors for LNWR are commits Marcus Paige and J.P. Tokoto as well as prospects T.J. Warren (one of the purest scorers in the 2012 class). 2013 PG Nate Britt will also be in the house Friday night.  Matt Jones will be at dook's late night, but will visit Chapel Hill Saturday afternoon. 

I hear that there may be a tribute to recently retired, long time Tar Heel announcer Woody Durham and an appearance by the new Athletic Direct Bubba Cunningham. 

Game Day Preview -

Miami

Key Match Up

UNC Rushing Defense vs Lamar Miller

Lamar Miller

Lamar Miller is leading the ACC is rushing yards per game and averages a little under 144 yards per game against FBS schools.  Meanwhile, UNC is giving up a little more than 131 yards per game against FBS competition.  This is going to be the most important matchup on the defensive side of the ball for UNC because Miami, just like UNC, starts their offense with the running game and looks to build the passing game off of it with play action.

While Miami's starting QB Jacory Harris used to be a turnover machine, he has significantly improved his passing efficiency and ball protection under the new conservative offensive scheme of first year head coach Al Golden.  In 2010, Harris had a passer rating of 116.60 with fourteen TDs to fifteen INTs and a 54.8% completion percentage.  So far in 2011, Harris has a passer rating of 169.57 (second in the ACC, behind only Renner) with nine TDs to three INTs and a 67.4% completion percentage.  Miami and Harris are throwing much less in 2011 (ranked 11th in pass attempts in the ACC as opposed to 3rd in attempts in 2010), but much more efficiently.  If UNC can stop the run, it will force Harris to do more and, historically, that should result in an advantage for UNC to create extra possessions for the offense.

In order to stop the run, UNC must be able to handle the Hurricane offensive line.  The Miami offensive line is one of the biggest and most athletic that UNC will face all season.  Getting leverage at the point of attack will be critical so that the linebackers can plug the running lanes and make tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage.  Tydreke Powell and Sly Williams have done a great job in the middle all year and I expect that to continue on Saturday.  If Coples, Martin, DPM and Jackson are able to hold the edge and force everything inside, we will be very successful.  

Linebacker play will be also critical to stopping the Miami rushing attack.  Unfortunately, we may be short handed at linebacker.  Reddick and Okapu missed last Saturday.  Withers has said that he expects to have Reddick back by Saturday despite Reddick only participating in individual drills during Tuesday's practice. Okapu was a full practice participant.   

Additionally, getting Jabari Price back should be huge for defensive run support.  With Price and Charles Brown at corner, defensive coordinator Art Kaufman should be able to walk safety help into the box with Price and Brown comfortably isolated on the outside in single coverage.  The Miami receivers are decent, but not spectacular.  It is my hope that Tre Boston has gotten enough reps at safety this week to see significant live snaps in the game.  Adding Boston's athleticism at safety should be a positive.

Fun Fact

UNC and Miami both average exactly 6.8 yards per play on offense.

What To Watch

 (1)  Third Down Conversion

On offense, we are converting only 41.27% of third down opportunities, which is 9th in the ACC.  Considering we have only run 340 play on offense for the season, we need to convert more third down opportunities to win the TOP (time of possession).  This could be a key statistic of the game - see below at The Miami Defensive Line.

On defense, we are only stopping the opponent's offense on 45.95% of third down plays.  It is extremely frustrating when third and longs are converted.  In my opinion, it is because we do not attack enough on third and long situations.  We play a soft zone that allows the offense to move the chains because our three man front can't get pressure on the QB in max protect.  It absolutely KILLS ME!  With the return of Jabari Price, I am looking for more pressure packages on obvious passing downs. 

(2)  The Miami Defensive Line

The Miami defensive line is ravaged by injuries.  Tackles Curtis Porter and Marcus Forston are done for the year.  DT Luther Robinson and DE Jalen Grimble missed the whole VT game, while Adewale Ojomo missed the second half.  With Golden hopeful that Ojomo and Grimble will play on Saturday, Miami does not have the depth to hold up in the fourth if we can sustain drives.  

(3)  Four Quarters

I don't think this Tar Heel team has played a complete game yet this year in every phase.  Each week, the offense seems to sputter for at least on quarter and the defense can't seem to finish a defensive stand on third down.  No unit has been in rhythm for a full four quarters.  We have yet to see optimal output or even anything close.  I know this team has greatness in it and it would be nice to see our guys put it together for a full sixty minutes.

This Miami team is dangerous, despite their record.  If we get up by a couple of TDs, we have to stay focused.  Last week against VT, Miami scored twenty-one points in the fourth quarter in Blacksburg, overcoming a ten point deficit before ultimately loosing in the final two minutes because of a VT rushing TD.  Obviously, if it is a tight game, Miami is danger for exactly the same reason and we will need a complete effort to come away with the W.

(4)  The Crowd

This is a big game.  I hope the crowd is there for kickoff and ready to support our guys at full throat. 

(5)  The Streak

Miami has never won a game in Kenan Stadium.  Lets keep it that way.

Looking Back On Louisville

Tweets of the Day

 - Recruiting Edition -

Butter_Biscuit Buttered Biscuits

Check out new commit OL Bryce Kennedy's (@bigBK75) highlights <http://t.co/xAsAZu1t> Love the push off the snap & how he finishes blocks

TarHeelTimes Tar Heel Times 

Defensive back Tyreece Jiles commits to UNC bit.ly/nFeikM

UNCSportsNews UNCSportsNews  

Joel James Highlight Video tinyurl.com/3fe4o3o #TarHeels #UNC

Jonathan Cooper leading the team onto the field with the Stars & Stripes.

Looking Back On Louisville

Three Observations

(1)  Tar Heel Battered Fan Syndrome

Tar Heel football fans have taken a beating over the past 16 months.  Last year was supposed to be culmination of Butch Davis's rebuilding efforts . . . then the NCAA showed up in Chapel Hill.  After a great 8-5 season that included the first bowl win since 2001 despite several early round NFL draft picks never playing a down, the worst seemed to be behind us.  UNC leadership had publicly stated support for Coach Davis.  The Blue Zone was about to open.  Recruiting was going very well, despite the NCAA issues and negative recruiting by other schools.  And then the unimaginable happened.  Holden Thorp unilaterally fired Butch Davis days before the start of fall camp.  The timing and handling of the situation could not have been worse.  For every cause, there is an effect.  If you looked at the stands in Kenan on Saturday at kickoff, you saw the effect of having the chancellor firing a beloved head coach days before the season starts and days after the due date for season tickets and Blue Zone licensing fees.

I was there and the frustration was palpable.  Football games are supposed to be fun, but when I got to my seat the only thing I could say what, "WHAT THE FUCK!"  There was no energy.  There were no students.  There was only aluminum and frustration and it carried over to the field.  Just like the crowd, our guys came out flat and didn't execute.  Their futility on the field just exacerbated the frustration, but I blame the crowd.  We need to step it up.  Our guys deserve better, regardless of game time.  Regardless of the frustration of dealing with the past year.  Regardless of your feelings for Holden Thorp.  REGARDLESS, these guys deserve a better showing from the Tar Heel faithful.

This weekend, Miami comes to town and we need an energized crowd.  Unlike Louisville, we will need to beat Miami for four quarters, not two.  And unlike the Lousiville game, we need to make it a hostile environment for the Hurricanes.
 

COME EARLY!  COME ENERGIZED!  COME READY TO GET LOUD!

(2)  Calculated Risk

On Saturday, Kevin Reddick (ankle), Ebele Okapu (ankle) and Cam Holland (back) were held out of the game.  While this is pure speculation, I believe that this was done to get these guys healthy for this key stretch in the schedule and, if it would had been Miami or Virginia Tech, they would have played.  The Heels are still four weeks away from a bye and face Miami, Clemson at Death Valley, Wake Forest and NC State in Raleigh during that stretch.  Rather than push guys that were listed as questionable, I believe the staff may have elected to get some guys some extra rest so they can be ready for these next four games.  This applies particularly to Reddick and not so much to Holland, who didn't practice all week because of a back injury.

In Reddick, Okapu and Holland's absence, Fabby Desir, Darius Lipford and Russell Bodine got some key experience and improved as the game progressed, but Reddick and Holland left a noticeable void.  I have heard and read a lot grumbling about various areas of execution against Louisville, but I think the right decision was made, particularly with Reddick.  Having Reddick at full strength and leading our defense is going to be crucial to our success.

(3)  Winners

Tar Heels get the W.  It was not the way I expected the game to go, but our guys stayed focused and persevered.  Sometimes you got to win ugly and we seem to win ugly against inferior opponents.  It is the mark of a young team when you play down to your opponents, but it is mark of a good team when you can overcome a slow start and dominate the second half for a comfortable win.

First Half

UNC:  Time of Possession - 7:52; Total Offense - 53 yards
Louisville:  Time of Possession - 22:08; Total Offense - 173

Second Half

UNC:  Time of Possession 20:13; Total Offense - 185
Louisville:  Time of Possession 9:47; Total Offense - 70

Sly Williams is playing great in the middle anchoring the defensive line who was the best unit on the field Saturday.

Game Day Preview - Louisville

Tweets of the Day

InsideCarolina InsideCarolina 

Britt Offered: North Carolina extended a scholarship offer to junior point guard Nate Britt on Wednesday. bit.ly/pgGZJd

Tyler_Naron21 Tyler Naron 

And Nate Britt is coming to LNWR, with Warren, any other big time recruits wanna come down? Mitch?

Game Day Preview - 

Louisville

Louisville Head Coach Charlie Strong

Is there a better surname for a defensive coach than Strong?  I think not.  Head coach Charlie Strong and Louisville will come into Chapel Hill this weekend with the 20th ranked scoring defense allowing only 16.8 points per game,  the 14th ranked rushing defense allowing only eighty-five yards per game, ranked 20th nationally for sacks per game at 2.75, 1st in the nation in tackles for loss per game with nine, and 24th nationally in total defense.  Needless to say, Charlie Strong has the Cardinals playing some defense.  Or does he?

In football, the saying goes, "stats are for losers."  I like numbers, so I look at them.  Looking at the numbers and national rankings of Louisville's defense, it is impressive, especially the rushing defense . . . until you look at their opponents - Murray State, Florida International, Kentucky and Marshall.  I will ignore Murray State since they are an FCS team.  A look at the points per game average for the remaining three makes the defensive numbers that Louisville has posted very suspect: Florida International - 22.1; Kentucky - 15; and Marshal - 11.2.  Those are some pretty anemic offenses.  In contrast, UNC averages 31.4 points per game.

UL's QB Teddy Bridewater

Additional anemic numbers.  Kentucky is 96th nationally with 116.2 yards per game on the ground or  ranked 103rd with 3.28 yards per carry.  Florida International is more proficient, but still not in the top half nationally at 63rd with 146 rushing yards per game or 4.03 yards per carry (still 63rd in the nation).  Worst is Marshall.  The Herd are ranked 110th with 94 yards per game or 112th national in yards per carry with 2.88 per attempt.  Unlike the rest of Louisville's schedule to date, North Carolina averages 5.19 yards per carry for 22nd best in the country.

The scary part, Louisville's offense numbers.  They have a true freshman under center in Teddy Birdgewater.  While he was a highly touted prospect coming into Louisville, the Cardinals are replacing several offensive starters, so you can expect some inefficiency and inconsistency.   However, Louisville is 105th (out of 120) in the country in offensive scoring with 18.8 points per game.  Based on the schdule so far, I think it is fair to say that they haven't faced a defense as talented as the one they will see on Saturday either. 

Bottom line, this is a game that UNC should win comfortably as long as we come in prepared and play better than we did against Rutgers.  Louisville is a program that is rebuilding, but they have playmakers.  Therefore, they can beat you.  I think we come in ready to play and our defense takes out some frustration after two weeks of GT and ECU on an undermanned Louisville offensive line.

What I Will Be Watching

Tre Boston forcing a strip turnover against ECU

1 - The Secondary.  Does Tre Boston move back to safety with the return of Jabari Price?  Boston added the weight in the off season and committed himself to the transition in the film room and summer camp.  I would like to see that hard work pay off on the field in the position he prepared himself to play.  With the remainder of the teams on our schedule being efficient, pass-heavy offenses, we need to get the secondary playing better football.  I think putting the expected pieces back into place will go a long way toward doing that.

2 - The Defensive Line.  Louisville should be a stat day, but it will only be a stat day for the front seven if they come in ready to play.  Will we be looking ahead to Miami or will we be focused on the task at hand?

3 - The Death Rattle.  Will we come out attacking and put Louisville away quickly or will we allow them to hang around and make it interesting in the second half?  We have learned how to win.  Now, we need to learn how to kill.  Forgive the hyperbole, but you know what I am saying.