Game Day Preview - Miami

Late Night with Roy

Midnight Madness and the start of basketball season is this Friday.  I will begin basketball posts soon, but I can sum up all you need to know in one sentence - WE ARE REALLY, REALLY, REALLY FUCKING GOOD!!! (all caps and three explanation points)  The official visitors for LNWR are commits Marcus Paige and J.P. Tokoto as well as prospects T.J. Warren (one of the purest scorers in the 2012 class). 2013 PG Nate Britt will also be in the house Friday night.  Matt Jones will be at dook's late night, but will visit Chapel Hill Saturday afternoon. 

I hear that there may be a tribute to recently retired, long time Tar Heel announcer Woody Durham and an appearance by the new Athletic Direct Bubba Cunningham. 

Game Day Preview -

Miami

Key Match Up

UNC Rushing Defense vs Lamar Miller

Lamar Miller

Lamar Miller is leading the ACC is rushing yards per game and averages a little under 144 yards per game against FBS schools.  Meanwhile, UNC is giving up a little more than 131 yards per game against FBS competition.  This is going to be the most important matchup on the defensive side of the ball for UNC because Miami, just like UNC, starts their offense with the running game and looks to build the passing game off of it with play action.

While Miami's starting QB Jacory Harris used to be a turnover machine, he has significantly improved his passing efficiency and ball protection under the new conservative offensive scheme of first year head coach Al Golden.  In 2010, Harris had a passer rating of 116.60 with fourteen TDs to fifteen INTs and a 54.8% completion percentage.  So far in 2011, Harris has a passer rating of 169.57 (second in the ACC, behind only Renner) with nine TDs to three INTs and a 67.4% completion percentage.  Miami and Harris are throwing much less in 2011 (ranked 11th in pass attempts in the ACC as opposed to 3rd in attempts in 2010), but much more efficiently.  If UNC can stop the run, it will force Harris to do more and, historically, that should result in an advantage for UNC to create extra possessions for the offense.

In order to stop the run, UNC must be able to handle the Hurricane offensive line.  The Miami offensive line is one of the biggest and most athletic that UNC will face all season.  Getting leverage at the point of attack will be critical so that the linebackers can plug the running lanes and make tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage.  Tydreke Powell and Sly Williams have done a great job in the middle all year and I expect that to continue on Saturday.  If Coples, Martin, DPM and Jackson are able to hold the edge and force everything inside, we will be very successful.  

Linebacker play will be also critical to stopping the Miami rushing attack.  Unfortunately, we may be short handed at linebacker.  Reddick and Okapu missed last Saturday.  Withers has said that he expects to have Reddick back by Saturday despite Reddick only participating in individual drills during Tuesday's practice. Okapu was a full practice participant.   

Additionally, getting Jabari Price back should be huge for defensive run support.  With Price and Charles Brown at corner, defensive coordinator Art Kaufman should be able to walk safety help into the box with Price and Brown comfortably isolated on the outside in single coverage.  The Miami receivers are decent, but not spectacular.  It is my hope that Tre Boston has gotten enough reps at safety this week to see significant live snaps in the game.  Adding Boston's athleticism at safety should be a positive.

Fun Fact

UNC and Miami both average exactly 6.8 yards per play on offense.

What To Watch

 (1)  Third Down Conversion

On offense, we are converting only 41.27% of third down opportunities, which is 9th in the ACC.  Considering we have only run 340 play on offense for the season, we need to convert more third down opportunities to win the TOP (time of possession).  This could be a key statistic of the game - see below at The Miami Defensive Line.

On defense, we are only stopping the opponent's offense on 45.95% of third down plays.  It is extremely frustrating when third and longs are converted.  In my opinion, it is because we do not attack enough on third and long situations.  We play a soft zone that allows the offense to move the chains because our three man front can't get pressure on the QB in max protect.  It absolutely KILLS ME!  With the return of Jabari Price, I am looking for more pressure packages on obvious passing downs. 

(2)  The Miami Defensive Line

The Miami defensive line is ravaged by injuries.  Tackles Curtis Porter and Marcus Forston are done for the year.  DT Luther Robinson and DE Jalen Grimble missed the whole VT game, while Adewale Ojomo missed the second half.  With Golden hopeful that Ojomo and Grimble will play on Saturday, Miami does not have the depth to hold up in the fourth if we can sustain drives.  

(3)  Four Quarters

I don't think this Tar Heel team has played a complete game yet this year in every phase.  Each week, the offense seems to sputter for at least on quarter and the defense can't seem to finish a defensive stand on third down.  No unit has been in rhythm for a full four quarters.  We have yet to see optimal output or even anything close.  I know this team has greatness in it and it would be nice to see our guys put it together for a full sixty minutes.

This Miami team is dangerous, despite their record.  If we get up by a couple of TDs, we have to stay focused.  Last week against VT, Miami scored twenty-one points in the fourth quarter in Blacksburg, overcoming a ten point deficit before ultimately loosing in the final two minutes because of a VT rushing TD.  Obviously, if it is a tight game, Miami is danger for exactly the same reason and we will need a complete effort to come away with the W.

(4)  The Crowd

This is a big game.  I hope the crowd is there for kickoff and ready to support our guys at full throat. 

(5)  The Streak

Miami has never won a game in Kenan Stadium.  Lets keep it that way.