Game Day Preview -
Clemson Tigers
This Saturday UNC heads to Clemson to play an undefeated Tiger team in Death Valley. Clemson does it right on gameday, so the atmosphere will be more electric than any that UNC has played in all year. I think this is a good thing. The energy of a crowd transfers down to the field for both home and visiting team alike. If there is one thing that this team has done in recent weeks, it is sleep walk through the first two quarters. Coming out in a high energy environment will probably be advantageous to our Tar Heels, so I look for a fast start. I know what you are thinking - this is going to be a hostile crowd. So fucking what? It won't be more hostile than the crowd at the Music City Bowl. While that was a different time with a different team and a different head coach, our guys have been there and done that, so I don't think we will be overwhelmed. Instead, I think it gives us an edge. Tar Heels against the world! Let their energy feed our fire!
Key Matchups
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| Dwayne Allen |
The one match up that Greg Barnes did not touch on that I think is important to Clemson's success is TE Dwayne Allen, the number one tight end prospect on Todd McShay's NFL draft board. Allen is a big, athletic tight end that averages fourteen yards a catch, largely because he is so difficult to tackle. How UNC lines up against Allen will dictate the coverage on the freshman phenom Sammy Watkins and gap intergrity against RB Andre Ellington and mobile QB Taj Boyd. I think this is the key defensive match up to the game.
Key To The Game
Dabo Swinney is a terrible football coach. Terrible. However, he is a great recruiter and a great football CEO. Dabo is a great figure head for the Clemson football program, but more importantly he was smart enough to hire Chad Morris with just one year of college experience at Tulsa as an offensive coordinator after being an extremely successful Texas high school football coach. I think it is fair to liken Chad Morris to Coach Eric Taylor of Friday Night Lights. You remember Friday Night Lights, right?
Man, I miss that show! Anyway, now Clemson has a high octane offense under Morris's leadership.
Chad Morris is a Gus Malzahn disciple and has the Tigers humming. Clemson is averaging 38.5 points per game against FBS competition, which is 13th best in the country. The key to Chad Morris's offense is tempo. Morris targets 80 snaps a game. According to a Bruce Feldman Stats That Matter CBS Sports blog entry,
Contrary to Chad Morris's philosophy, John Shoop's offensive approach is very conservative, slow and methodical. I don't know what offensive identifiers Shoop focuses on, but pace is not something that concerns him. Currently, Clemson is averaging 78.5 plays per game against FBS schools, while UNC is averaging 60.3. Note, this is number of plays, not snaps. I don't know the number of snaps which would include plays unaccounted for on drive charts because of penalties.
One of the statics I like to look at to determine offensive efficiency is yards per play. UNC averages 6.31 yards per play. Clemson averages 6.23. While UNC holds a slight edge here, it is insignificant because of the pace of play the Tigers attack with. With the extra plays, Clemson dominates the total offense static. Clemson is averaging 489 yards per game, while UNC is averaging 381.2. The difference is the pace of play and it shows up on the score board. Clemson has 271 points on the year to 153 by UNC. Further, Clemson (12.2) is averaging almost one full possession more per game than UNC (11.5). Why is that scary? Clemson is averaging 2.96 points per possession with UNC averaging 2.22. Obviously, Chad Morris is on to something.
For UNC to win, the Tar Heels must slow down the Clemson attack. Literally. Slow it down by limiting their snaps. According Stats That Matter, "[i]n the Tigers first two games, the players, especially first-time starting QB Tajh Boyd, were still getting up to speed, literally. They ran off 72 snaps in each. But they followed up that by rolling up 92 snaps against FSU and Auburn. At Virginia Tech, they fell back to 67." The only time this season that Clemson has failed to score 35 or more was against VT. Luckily for Clemson, VT's offense was pathetic that night and only managed 3 points because of a struggling Logan Thomas (15/27 for 125 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT). As a result, Clemson won comfortably 23-3. Hopefully, Kaufman loaded up the VT game film and took notes.
If the numbers aren't enough to impress you, listen to what Urban Meyer has to say:
Yup. I guess this would be a good time to tell you that our new AD tried to hire Chad Morris back to Tulsa as the head coach when Todd Graham left for Pitt. While Morris is not at the top of the coaching list for Bubba's coaching search, it would not surprise me to find out if Morris was number four or five on the list.
Man, I miss that show! Anyway, now Clemson has a high octane offense under Morris's leadership.
Chad Morris is a Gus Malzahn disciple and has the Tigers humming. Clemson is averaging 38.5 points per game against FBS competition, which is 13th best in the country. The key to Chad Morris's offense is tempo. Morris targets 80 snaps a game. According to a Bruce Feldman Stats That Matter CBS Sports blog entry,
"We feel like like it does a lot of things for us," Morris said. "By getting 80 or more, it tells us that we've had great tempo through the course of the game. We have a chance to wear down a defense. Obviously if you've had 80 snaps, you're having success because you look at your average scoring and it's about one out of every 15 to 18 snaps. Your conversion rates go up. All of that stuff. Everything works hand-in-hand. It's just something we target. We chart it every day. I know at halftime if we have 44 snaps, you double it, and I know we're on track."
The hand-in-hand part goes like this: The added pace that enables Morris' offense to get into a rhythm also takes a physical and emotional toll on the defense, which ups the frequency of the Tigers hitting more big plays as the game wears on. Defenders wilt, becoming more prone to busted assignments and just having trouble getting lined up before the ball is snapped and end up caught out of position. "There's no question about that," he says. "We've doubled the output of big plays in six games from what they had this time last year just because of what we're doing tempo wise."
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| Clemson Offensive Coordinator Chad Morris |
One of the statics I like to look at to determine offensive efficiency is yards per play. UNC averages 6.31 yards per play. Clemson averages 6.23. While UNC holds a slight edge here, it is insignificant because of the pace of play the Tigers attack with. With the extra plays, Clemson dominates the total offense static. Clemson is averaging 489 yards per game, while UNC is averaging 381.2. The difference is the pace of play and it shows up on the score board. Clemson has 271 points on the year to 153 by UNC. Further, Clemson (12.2) is averaging almost one full possession more per game than UNC (11.5). Why is that scary? Clemson is averaging 2.96 points per possession with UNC averaging 2.22. Obviously, Chad Morris is on to something.
For UNC to win, the Tar Heels must slow down the Clemson attack. Literally. Slow it down by limiting their snaps. According Stats That Matter, "[i]n the Tigers first two games, the players, especially first-time starting QB Tajh Boyd, were still getting up to speed, literally. They ran off 72 snaps in each. But they followed up that by rolling up 92 snaps against FSU and Auburn. At Virginia Tech, they fell back to 67." The only time this season that Clemson has failed to score 35 or more was against VT. Luckily for Clemson, VT's offense was pathetic that night and only managed 3 points because of a struggling Logan Thomas (15/27 for 125 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT). As a result, Clemson won comfortably 23-3. Hopefully, Kaufman loaded up the VT game film and took notes.
If the numbers aren't enough to impress you, listen to what Urban Meyer has to say:
Yup. I guess this would be a good time to tell you that our new AD tried to hire Chad Morris back to Tulsa as the head coach when Todd Graham left for Pitt. While Morris is not at the top of the coaching list for Bubba's coaching search, it would not surprise me to find out if Morris was number four or five on the list.
What To Watch
(1) Attacking Defense. See my last post. The defensive scheme is too soft, too conservative and, worse, too predictable. If we are going to win, we need to attack Taj Boyd. We need to hit him early and hit him often. The best defense against an uptempo offense is to get them out of rhythm. We need to jam the receivers off the line and make Boyd beat us under duress. This is an offense that wants to get player-makers in space and a soft zone will be a slow death. Eight yards at a time. Limit the snaps by taking chances on defense that are designed to create negative plays and poor decisions, especially on 3rd down. Scheme to win, not to not loose. (YEAH! Effective double negatives are so hard to pull off!)
(2) The Offense Play Calling. We should be able to run the ball against Clemson. I don't know if they have a good defense. Statically, they do. In reality (not on paper), Clemson has played with comfortable leads that allowed them to pin their ears back and go after the quarterback, who had to throw because of the score board. By running the ball, we can win the TOP battle and hopefully limit their possessions and snaps. However, if the offense is too bland and the Clemson defense is able to attack, creating negative plays, we get off schedule and the outcome will not be good for the Heels.
(3) Special Teams. We don't get the ball deep on kickoffs. Clemson's Sammy Watkins is one of the most dangerous return men in the country at any level. This is not a good combination.
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