"Gimme Dat Shhhhh"

There Is a Reason the Golden Eagle Is Endangered

And that's why they call him Mr. Fantastic.
Thanks for playing, Marquette.

There is really no need to break this game down.  It was a nightmare match up for Marquette.  Their strengths played into our strengths.  The only way Marquette had a chance was to hit a bunch of threes.  And well, that didn't work out for them.  We played really good defense and took away everything that Marquette does well.  However, we didn't actually shoot very well, 41.9% from the field, 31.3% from three, and 66.7% from the line, but that didn't matter.  We are the better team and it showed up in every form of analytic you prefer.

Challenge Accepted MJ

Playing for Cool Greys

In Charlotte, MJ told the team that they could have whatever shoe they wanted if they made the Final Four.



I am not a sneaker-head, but the Cool Grey 11's are exclusive, expensive, and hard-to-find; therefore, they are a must have for any sneaker-head and you know we have several sneaker-heads putting in work for UNC.  Do you want to see the carrot that MJ is dangling?

Now, the only thing standing in the way of the Final Four and the Cool Grey 11 is UK, much to my chagrin.

For me, it is going to be an uncomfortable day in my house on Sunday.  As you know, I am a UNC alum and I LOVE the Tar Heels.  I am what you would call a PASSIONATE fan (capitalized).  Well, my girl went to UK . . . .  And you could say she is also a passionate fan (lower case).  Lets just say we are enjoying our company today, because tomorrow, IT IS ON!!!  Fuck it.  I will sleep on the coach for six months if it means a W and I will do it with a smile.  And I mean a shit-eating grin.  So what about the break down . . . .

Remember December 4, 2010?  Little hazy?  Want a clue?

Now do you remember?  Well, FORGET IT!  Neither one of these teams is any where close to the team that played in the Dean Dome.  We both represent two of the youngest teams in the Tournament.  We are infinitely better since that guy left our team and Kendall Marshall took over the point.  Likewise, UK is much better since Harrellson has improved his play over the season.  These two teams are much better than the teams that played back in December, so don't hang any expectations on the previous result.

Lately, I have been touting the Pomeroy Stats.  Well, Pomeroy still has us as underdogs.  The log5 title chances are Kansas 44.2%, Kentucky 16.9%, UConn 11.4%, Fla 10.6%, UNC 9.6%, Zona 4.4%, Butler 2.0%, and VCU 0.9%.  As you could guess from the log5, UK is a 58% favorite for the W on Sunday.  One problem.  These numbers are downwardly skewed because they are based on the entire season, which includes the numbers from when that "other" guy was running the point and not Kendall Marshall.  I have already talked about this number pollution in the Pomeroy numbers.  You can go back and find it if you want, but it is a fairly straight forward concept.  However, I have created some nice graphs that should put some perspective on the respective performance of each team in the NCAAT and illustrate why I think the numbers should show how we should be favored.

While you may be concerned about our lower eFG%, don't be.  Our eFG% is not that much lower than UK's, except for the Marquette game which I consider an outlier based on our clock killing second half.  Also, the way we clean the offensive glass should offset any perceived advantage UK has there.  This offset is shown visually in the PPP (points per possession, second graph) which we lead.  As we dominate the number of possessions (first graph) and lead PPP, the logical conclusion is that we will have the lead when time expires and will advance to the Final Four, despite what Ken Pom's current projections state. 

Keys to the Game

Front Court.  The biggest match up of the game in my opinion will be against the Kentucky front court.  They have less depth at that position than we do and are far less skilled.  Despite Harrellson's improvement, he is not an NBA talent.  Henson and Zeller are.  Harrellson's effectiveness comes in offensive put backs and pick and roll situations.  UK spreads the floor exposing the offensive glass, but this is something that we should be able to mitigate.  We are the best rebounding team in the country because we have size and athleticism at every position.  It is difficult to exploit match ups against us to create a favorable position on the boards.  Also, Harrellson will likely find himself in foul trouble, having to contend with Zeller, so that will suppress his aggression on the offensive glass.  Zeller is a more skilled big man than Sullinger and will put more defensive pressure on Harrellson (who still picked up two fouls in the first half of the OSU game).  Therefore, Harrellson's put back and offensive rebounds that result in a recycle possession for UK should be significantly reduced.

I expect the Henson-Jones match up to be similar to what we saw in December.  Henson's length will bother Jones and it wouldn't surprise me if Jones got into foul trouble again because of frustration . . . again.

Back Court.  There are two key match ups in the back court.

Kendall Marshall vs. DeAndre Liggins.  Following the OSU game, Liggins acknowledged that he will be defending Marshall.  This could cause Marshall some problems.  Liggins is a great defender.  He has size (6'6"), length (7'0" wing span), and quickness.  Marshall learned a lot during the ACCT Championship game, so I expect him to handle this pressure well.  Marshall has been using his body to protect the ball to get his defender on his hip to punish the aggressive ball pressure, so look for that.  If Liggins does get to him, it will be after UK's made-field goals.  If that happens, I think we will put the ball in Dex's hand to break the pressure and then let Marshall run the set once we get into the half court.  If this comes to fruition, an ancillary advantage for us will be increasing Knight's effort on the defensive end, which will effect his offensive output. 

Dexter Strickland vs. Brandon Knight.  Strickland is an All-ACC Defender despite not being acknowledged as such.  He has defended the best perimeter weapon of the opposing team all season.  Therefore, he has defended slashers off the bounce as well as shooters that run off screens.  Knight does both.  While Knight is not having a particularly great Tourney, he has been effective when it matters in the clutch.  However, I feel really comfortable with Dex's ability to limit Knight's effectiveness, which will limit what the Cats can do offensively, so UK will probably not have an opportunity for a game-winning or outcome-determining shot.

X-Factor.  Harrison Barnes will be the X-factor for us.  Three point shooting will be the X-factor for the Cats.  If Barnes can be efficient offensively, we will win, no matter how well UK shoots from the perimeter.  Last time, Liggins guarded Barnes.  This time, Liggins says he will guard Marshall.  That means either Lamb or Miller will guard Barnes and he should get some really good, clean looks.  However, if Barnes is unable to take advantage and becomes a volume shooter with UK is lighting it up from the outside with Lamb, Miller, and Liggins, we will be in trouble.

Bottom Line.  UNC will play in the Final Four by edging out UK in a tight game that does not come down to the last possession.  UK will have a false sense of confidence resulting from the previous two point loss at the Dean Dome in December during a point in the season when they struggled on the road and because they are riding a nine game win streak.  However, UNC has the mettle, skill, size, and match up advantage over UK, Carolina 78-73.  Show me the Cool Grey 11s.