Future Tar Heel and McDonald's All-American
P.J. Hairston
The Waiting Game: April 24th
Whether or not to enter the NBA draft to make millions is a personal decision and the question this year is more difficult than it would be in years past for our young Tar Heels. Sure, we would have a great shot at a National Championship if everyone comes back and all three would probably hang in perpetuity from the Rafters, but that is a year-in-and-year-out dilemma for our five-star blue chippers. No, what makes this year's question more vexing is the impending NBA lockout. According to Chris Mannix, an NBA Insider reporting for Sports Illustrated, on the Dan Patrick Show this morning:
"Guys are crazy to come out this year . . . . Everyone believes that the lock out will last close to if not a full year . . . . Unless you absolutely cannot go back to college because you never go to any classes and you are just going to flunk out anyway, I see absolutely no reason for the top talent to come out this year."The problem with the NBA lockout is that, while there will be a draft, no players will be paid until a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) has been reached. Apparently, the separation between the owners and the player's union is more like a chasm than a divide. Therefore, it is not a question of a lockout, but how long. As a result, Mannix is of the opinion that top flight players are better served improving there skills at the college level, being coached and cared for by the University, rather than sitting out an entire season or going to Europe to play until a CBA can be reached. Unless a player is in dire financial straits, most potential draft participants can benefit from an additional year of college. Few have maximized their potential and can continue to develop their game with the hands on coaching that is received at the college level and not necessarily available at the professional level.
According to Chad Ford on ESPN, Barnes would go third, Henson around 14, and Zeller at 17. The following is a synopsis of the numerous NBA scouting reports available on the World Wide Web:
(3) Harrison Barnes
Barnes has protypical size for an NBA wing at 6'8' with a 7'1" wingspan. He is a very smooth player, who can make the game look easy at times. He has a solid perimeter jump shot, but can be streaky at times resulting in volume shooting when he is not connecting. He has a great stroke that can extend to NBA range. He’s long and underrated for his athleticism, but is not as explosive as above-average NBA wings, making him an average defender. Barnes is very fundamentally sound, with a high basketball IQ. He’s not afraid to take the big shot, and has shown his ability to come up big at the end of games.
While Barnes can play in the NBA now, he did struggle to acclimate to the college game and it might take him longer to become effective at the higher, NBA level. His mental toughness and work-ethic make him the closest to a sure thing there is in any draft, but he would benefit from further physical development. He needs to add strength to finish through contact from larger defenders at the rim and in the paint. He hides this at the college level by settling for step back and fade away jumpers, but would benefit from being more assertive off the dribble. As such, he doesn’t attack the rim as much as scouts would like, but he does have the potential to do so. For his size, he needs to develop some sort of post game, which he hasn’t shown all year despite superior size over opponents.
Most Common Comparison: Paul Peirce (positive); Tracy McGrady (less-than-positive)
(14) John Henson
Henson has incredible length (6'10" with a 7'4" wingspan) and athleticism. In addition to his length and athleticism, Henson has great quickness that enables him to be a premier shot blocker and rebounder. He has an unorthodox offensive game that makes him difficult to defend for finesse opponents. Additionally, Henson has begun to develop an effective outside shot that will stretch defenses if it continues to develop. That development is an encouraging sign that he will continue to develop his game and grow as he has one of the highest ceilings of any prospect in the draft. Henson's attitude and approach to life will make him an asset in most locker rooms as he is known as a jokester that is easy with a smile and keeps the mood light off the court, but has an edge for the competition on it.
Henson's biggest weakness for the NBA game is his lack of strength and girth. He is easily pushed off the block by physically mature opponents. His lack of physical size and strength have impeded his offensive development and limit his offensive effectiveness as he is unable to create his own shot when being bodied up with NBA-size defenders at the college level and has the ball knocked out of his hands too easily by smaller guards. He has the frame of a 3 with the skills of a 4. Additionally, he can be careless with the basketball when dribbling in traffic and needs to improve his ball handling to become a real threat on the perimeter. Finally, he has issues with focus at times that result in turnovers and bad plays.
Most Common Comparison: Brandon Wright with less offense. Danger of becoming a defensive role player if he is unable to continue to add size and improve his offensive game.
As I have mentioned before, the rumors coming out the Dean Dome are that all will return. Please know that I am just passing on the information that I have heard. I have only met Henson and Zeller in passing and have never met Barnes. I laid out everything that I had heard in this post: Wheels Down In Jersey. Below is the pertinent info from that post:(17) Tyler Zeller
Zeller's ability to run the floor, his soft touch around the basket and his high basketball IQ make him a solid role player prospect for the NBA. While he will never be an impact player, he will play for a long time and be an asset to his team in limited or extended minutes.
He doesn't have the bulk, strength or toughness needed to be a full-time NBA center. He improved his toughness over the course of the season, but never imposed it against equally-sized bigs that play physical.
Most Common Comparison: A poor man Paul Gasol.
The rumors coming out of the Dean Dome are that every underclassman will probably return. While it is way too early to make a definitive statement, it is interesting that it is a common refrain from most circles including those that cover then NBA. Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN, contributing mostly insider content. In an online chat yesterday when asked about Henson and Barnes draft status, he wrote,So . . . . Am I counting my chickens yet? No, but . . . . Do you know where the Final Four is being played next year? New Orleans. Do you know how many times we have won it all in New Orleans? Two. New Orleans has been good to us!
"Both would be lottery picks. Barnes still in the running for the No. 1 pick. The word on the street is that both are likely to return to school. However, things can change. We've seen top players in the past say they were coming back and then change their minds. But it sounds like both are pretty sincere. Another year at school would help both of them become better pros. Of the two, Barnes is more NBA ready right now[.]"The common refrain for Henson is that he will be better served coming back one more year and developing his body as well as his offensive game with negative comparisons to Brandon Wright if he were to make the jump now. As for Barnes, while there are areas that need improvement, e.g. ball handling and reducing turn overs, he can play in the NBA right now. However, Barnes is on track to graduate in three years, maybe as early as two and a half, and not only is school important to Barnes, so is his legacy. He knows what it means to win a National Championship at UNC and have your jersey hanging in the Rafters (remember I capitalize Rafters because it deserves it). Obviously, a lot will depend on the next two weeks, but that is the word coming out of the Dean Dome and NBA circles at this point.
Can't wait to see what happens!
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